COVID-19 deaths expected to decline this summer, then surge in September, model shows
A coronavirus model used by the White House forecasts a decline in daily deaths over the summer before a big surge in September.
The U.S. COVID-19 deaths could reach 169,890 by October, with a predicted range of 133,000 to 290,000 deaths, according to the model.
“If the U.S. is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington that made the model, told CNN.
Confirmed coronavirus cases surpassed 2 million in the United States on June 11, according to Johns Hopkins University. More than 113,000 people have died in the U.S. as of Thursday evening.
Dr. Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told CNN that the U.S. could see around 200,000 deaths in September should circumstances across the country stay as they are now.
“I think that is catastrophic. I think that is not something we have to be fated to live with,” Jha told CNN. “We can change the course. We can change course today.”
States began relaxing social distancing restrictions in May, The New York Times reported.
Jha said that the U.S. is starting to see some of the negative effects of relaxing social distancing too soon.
“We’re really only the major country in the world that opened back up without really getting our cases as down low as we really needed to,” Jha told CNN. “We’re also one of the few advanced countries that doesn’t really have a robust testing and tracing infrastructure. Put all of that together and we have made this whole situation far more risky. So yeah, we’re starting to see the negative effects of opening up.”
There was an increase in the rate of new coronavirus cases in 21 states last week, Reuters reported.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, who in April warned that a second coronavirus wave is unavoidable in the fall or winter, said on Wednesday that it can be prevented.
“We often talk about the possibility of a second wave, or of an outbreak when you’re reopening,” Fauci said on CNN. “We don’t have to accept that as an inevitability. And particularly when people start thinking about the fall, I want people to appreciate that it could happen but it is not inevitable.”
National protests have also broken out after George Floyd, 46, an unarmed black man, died while in police custody on May 25. He died after now-fired Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin pressed his knee into Floyd’s neck for 8 minutes and 46 seconds, as three other officers didn’t intervene.
Health experts and government leaders have warned that if protesters aren’t social distancing or wearing masks, demonstrations could spread the virus.
“You have a right to demonstrate. You have the right to protest. God bless America,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said during a news briefing, according to CNN. “You don’t have a right to infect other people. You don’t have a right to act in a way that’s going to jeopardize public health.”
Dr. James Phillips, a physician and assistant professor at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN protests “can be done in a relatively safe manner by trying to distance yourself and wearing those masks.”
“But understanding that shouting and cheering loudly, that does produce a lot of droplets and aerosolization that can spread the virus to people,” Phillips told CNN. “So it’s important to remember, in the middle of a tinder box that is America right now and with all these protests taking place, we can’t lose sight of the fact there’s a deadly virus circulating and it can still spread.”
This story was originally published June 11, 2020 at 4:27 PM with the headline "COVID-19 deaths expected to decline this summer, then surge in September, model shows."