Coronavirus pandemic could last two years, researchers say. Here’s why
The coronavirus pandemic could continue for 18 months to two years, according to public health researchers.
The virus has been hard to contain because it’s being spread by people with no symptoms, researchers with the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota said in a new report.
The problem is that people could be at their most contagious before they even know they have the virus, the report said. The public health experts said 60% to 70% of the population will need to develop immunity to the virus to effectively stop the spread.
The report is from public health experts from the University of Minnesota, Harvard and Tulane University.
They say the pandemic could continue in waves this year and into next.
It’s hard to know if the worst is yet to come with an even bigger spike in the fall, or if the virus will be a “slow burn” without cases spiking in waves, the researchers said. And the course of the pandemic will probably vary depending on geography.
COVID-19 has surprised experts since the beginning, the report said.
“When severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) — the virus that causes COVID-19 — first emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, even the most experienced international public health experts did not anticipate that it would rapidly spread to create the worst global public health crisis in over 100 years,” according to the researchers.
“The virus caught the global community off guard, and its future course is still highly unpredictable; there is no crystal ball to tell us what the future holds and what the ‘end game’ for controlling this pandemic will be,” they said in the report.
Globally, the virus has infected at least 3.2 million people and killed more than 230,000. In the United States, more than 1 million people have tested positive for the coronavirus and 63,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The researchers had four recommendations for national leaders:
- “States, territories, and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario ... including no vaccine availability or herd immunity.
- “Government agencies and healthcare delivery organizations should develop strategies to ensure adequate protection for healthcare workers when disease incidence surges.
- “Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur.
- “Risk communication messaging from government officials should incorporate the concept that this pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease over the next 2 years.”
This story was originally published May 1, 2020 at 8:22 AM with the headline "Coronavirus pandemic could last two years, researchers say. Here’s why."
