When should your state reopen? Use this coronavirus simulator to help you decide

Want to control when your state reopens after coronavirus stay-at-home orders?

A COVID-19 simulator lets you decide when to lift bans and return to normalcy while predicting the number of deaths that will result from each scenario.

A team of statistics gurus and infectious disease experts from Harvard, Georgia Tech, Massachusetts General Hospital and Boston Medical Center designed the modeling system. They hope it will help the people making these choices understand the consequences of lifting social distancing guidelines and policies during the pandemic.

It has some dire predictions, including 2.2 million deaths by the end of August if only minimal restrictions are implemented. The U.S. just surpassed 60,000 coronavirus deaths this week.

How the COVID-19 simulator works

The simulator has three options for public policy decisions for social distancing. Users can implement each scenario for various amounts of time during a 12-week period ending Aug. 31. You can test different scenarios nationwide, by state or compare states.

• Minimal restrictions: No intervention implemented, but it assumes we’ll wash our hands, avoid others when we’re sick, etc.

• Current intervention: This scenario assumes the current stay-at-home orders in each state, citing a list by The New York Times.

• Lockdown: This most extreme measure, assuming a complete ban on flights, interstate travel and local travel with exceptions for essential needs such as grocery shopping and prescription pick-up.

Besides deaths, the simulator provides forecasts for new cases and the need for hospital beds and intensive-care unit beds.

What the model predicts

While the nationwide prediction of 2.2 million deaths is alarming, other scenarios in the model predict far fewer fatalities.

If the U.S. continues it’s current social distancing guidelines and orders, coronavirus deaths will reach 86,000 by the end of August. With a lockdown, the country would reach 79,800 deaths, according to the model.

The researchers provided analysis of Georgia, which has an aggressive plan to reopen businesses, and Texas, which is partially opening stores and restaurants on Friday.

Removing all restrictions in Georgia after four weeks will result in 23,400 total deaths in the state by Aug. 30, according to the simulator. Waiting 12 weeks will result in 1,940 deaths, the model predicts. The state currently has just over 1,100 confirmed deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.

In Texas, removing all restrictions in four weeks will result in 12,800 deaths by the end of August, according to the model. But keeping them in place for 12 weeks will result in 1,180 deaths. Texas had 759 confirmed deaths as of Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University.

This story was originally published April 30, 2020 at 2:58 PM with the headline "When should your state reopen? Use this coronavirus simulator to help you decide."