Coronavirus’ acceleration rate slows in Texas. Here’s what you need to do next
Texas officials pointed to a slowdown in the number of days it takes for confirmed coronavirus cases to double as evidence that social distancing mandates are working to slow the virus’ spread. However, they cautioned that abiding by those measures is necessary to ensure that continues.
Former state Rep. John Zerwas, who serves on Gov. Greg Abbott’s “Supply Chain Strike Force,” said Wednesday that the number of days it takes for positive cases to double in Texas has gone from about three in mid-March to roughly six.
“And so you’ve seen that number increase two-fold, as a consequence, I believe, of the things that we have been able to accomplish through protecting ourselves,” Zerwas said during a press conference Wednesday from the Texas Capitol.
Officials credited that slowdown to Texans staying at home and abiding by local and state restrictions. Late last month, Abbott issued an executive order that requires Texans to stay home through April. School closures were also extended until early May, and since then Abbott has taken additional measures to limit large gatherings, like temporary closing all state parks and historic sites.
“What that means is that the sacrifices you are making right now to distance yourself from others, to stay at home — they’re paying off. They’re leading to better results,” Abbott said. “And so please just continue the success that you’ve already been providing to our state for the remainder of this month, so we can ensure we continue to slow the spread of the coronavirus.”
The number of cases in Texas continues to rise. As of Wednesday afternoon, DSHS had reported at least 9,353 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Texas. Of those, 1,491 people are hospitalized and 177 have died. More than 96,250 Texans have been tested.
However, it’s unclear how up to date the data is in Texas. The state’s testing capabilities were slow to ramp up and some residents have waited up to a week for test results.
Texas lags behind other states in per-capita testing. According to data compiled by Vox, Texas ranks seventh in the number of people tested, and ranks near the bottom of tests per million people.
“Every state had tested more, faced more deadly consequences,” Abbott said, referring to states like New York, Washington and California’s higher numbers of tests. “As a result, those states were — rightfully so — prioritized with testing.”
Abbott stressed the amount of testing Texas has conducted is adequate to form models. While the state is making progress, Texas Department of State Health Services Commissioner John Hellerstedt said more data is needed to be confident in trends and predict at what point Texas may reach its peak.
“I’m confident that that doubling time is a really solid figure,” Hellerstedt said. “No, not everyone who necessarily asks for testing should be tested or can get tested. But for the purposes that we have in public health, it is perfectly adequate and does reflect the course of the illness in the state.”
Abbott said he bases his executive orders on data and doctors, but when asked what models the state is relying on or if the state has developed one of its own, Hellerstedt declined to name specifics and simply said the state is looking at “many different models.”
“Remember, the models are essentially a mathematical equation. And that mathematical equation has many variables in it,” Hellerstedt said, pointing to the doubling time as one of the most important factors. “Why is this disaster not like a hurricane? It’s because we can actually change the course, and we’re seeing that change take place.”
However, it’s still unknown how different racial groups in Texas may be affected by the virus. Nationwide, in cities and states that have reported demographic data, African-Americans are disproportionately contracting COVID-19 and dying from it.
While some cities, like Dallas and Houston have begun to publicly share that data, other areas — like Tarrant County — have yet to do so. Hellerstedt acknowledged that demographic data the state receives is sometimes incomplete, but stressed that the confirmation of a COVID-19 case is one of the most important points.
Abbott previously issued executive orders mandating the reporting of hospital bed capacity and COVID-19 tests to the state. When asked if Abbott would mandate that local health departments report demographic data, he said he would take such steps based on Hellerstedt’s recommendation.
Abbott said it’s likely the state will surpass 100,000 Texans who have been tested for the novel coronavirus in the coming days, and pointed to an increase in testing capabilities coming from the private sector. Walgreens will soon open drive-through testing locations in Texas using Abbott Laboratories’ rapid COVID-19 tests. Abbott said each site may be able to administer up to 3,000 tests daily.
Abbott also announced that 2 million masks will be produced per week through a partnership with the Texas Military Department and Prestige Ameritech, one of the nation’s largest surgical mask producers, which is based in North Richland Hills.
Earlier this week, Abbott announced that 5 million masks would soon be distributed across the state.
This story was originally published April 8, 2020 at 3:50 PM.
