How bad could COVID-19 get in Texas? 6,000 deaths and ICU bed shortage, model predicts

More than 150 people will die a day and Texas will have a shortage of intensive care unit beds at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in the state, a scientific model predicts.

On Tuesday, the state was forecast to suffer more than 6,000 deaths from COVID-19 with the peak of the outbreak still over a month away, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The institute is at the University of Washington School of Medicine. The analysis is based on death rates, social distancing policies, hospital bed usage and other data, according to a news release. It will be updated in “real-time” and information changes, officials said.

“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Director Dr. Christopher Murray said. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”

When might coronavirus peak in Texas?

The model predicted that the coronavirus outbreak will peak in early May.

Hospitals will use the most resources on May 5, when there will be a shortage of over 200 intensive-care unit beds, according to the model. However, the state was not predicted to have a shortage of total hospital beds at the peak.

Coronavirus deaths also will peak in early May, with more than 150 people dying per day in the first full week of the month, according to the model.

How many people in Texas could die?

The model predicts 6,029 people in Texas could die from COVID-19, with the last deaths occurring in July.

However, it provides a range of as few deaths as 1,640 to as many as 13,724.

As of the last day in March, the state had 38 deaths related to the coronavirus and 2,877 confirmed cases, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported.

What’s Texas doing for COVID-19?

Gov. Greg Abbott has not yet issued a statewide stay-at-home order, closures of “non-essential” businesses or travel restrictions, which the model factors into its analysis.

Instead, the governor has deferred to local government officials, saying about 75 percent of Texas is under stay-at-home policies because of their orders, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported.

Abbott temporarily closed schools and gyms, prohibited dining in bars and restaurants, limited social gatherings to 10 people, and restricted visits to nursing homes in an executive order on March 19.

Associations representing thousands of nurses and hospital workers in Texas have urged Abbott to issue a statewide stay-at-home order.

He’s also issued orders requiring travelers from Louisiana and other states to self-quarantine for two weeks after arriving in the state.

How does Texas’ forecast compare?

Deaths in the U.S. are expected to peak in two weeks, with over 2,000 per day, according to the model.

Across the country, Texas is one of 41 states expected to have a shortage of intensive-care unit beds. Eleven states may need to increase the capacity of ICU beds by 50 percent or more, experts said.

Experts in the White House coronavirus task force have predicted the nationwide death toll could reach 200,000, McClatchy News reported.

On Tuesday, the U.S. had nearly more than 174,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and more than 3,400 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.