Where do Texas’ and Tarrant County’s transplants hail from? Here are the top spots
With announcements like Elon Musk’s recent decision to move Tesla headquarters from the Bay Area to Austin, you might guess most of Texas’ new residents hail from northern California.
To pinpoint the origin of many new Texans, you’d have to look farther south.
During 2020, more than 3% of all out-of-state transplants hailed from Los Angeles County, according to a new study from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.
“The first thing we found, I think not surprising, is the majority of people coming from out of state are coming from California,” said research economist Luis Torres. “It’s increased since 2011 and in 2020 reached its highest participation.”
Statewide, Californians accounted for almost 16% of out-of-state migration. Florida was the second largest provider with 7.2%.
“All these new people — there’s a reason they’re moving here,” said Torres. “It impacts everything: labor force, labor supply, housing markets, real estate markets. It’s important to know, where are they coming from?”
Per initial analysis, the reason is simple: economic opportunity.
“A lot of them are moving here because businesses are moving here,” Torres said. “And of course, housing affordability plays a role.”
In Tarrant County, where housing prices are on the rise but still far cheaper than southern California real estate, these same trends appear.
In 2020, Californians accounted for 14.9% of newcomers from out-of-state; Florida came in second with 7.7%.
Of the top 10 out-of-state counties from which new Tarrant County residents move, southern California accounts for half.
Los Angeles County, where the median home price reached $795,000 last summer, tops the list with 3.5%
With higher incomes and bigger purchasing power, there’s a risk of out-of-state newcomers dominating the hot housing market.
“They’re paying $200,000 or more over the asking price,” Torres said. “We’ve heard those stories from Realtors.”
And when the flow from California inevitably slows, “What happens to the housing market?” Torres asked. “People are afraid they’re overpaying for those houses. What happens when they eventually go into the market?”
Amid these concerns, it’s important to recognize the scale of out-of-state migration to Texas.
While we may think the new Texas transplant hails from the West Coast, the majority of newcomers are actually our neighbors.
“I think what gets lost in all this is that the majority of the movers to any [metropolitan statistical area], including Tarrant County, are Texas movers,” said Torres.
In the case of Tarrant County, people moving from elsewhere in Texas account for nearly 84% of new residents.
“It’s people inside of Tarrant that move to a better school district, a better house,” said Torres. “And it’s people moving from the most neighboring counties, like Dallas and Denton.”
This story was originally published October 28, 2021 at 5:30 AM.
