Will Texas gas prices go up after U.S. raid in Venezuela? Here’s what to know
Gas prices have been falling across Texas, but some drivers may be wondering how long they will stay that way after the recent U.S. raid in Venezuela and arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.
In Fort Worth, the average price of regular gasoline was $2.31 a gallon on Tuesday, down nearly 18 cents from a month ago and nearly 50 cents cheaper than in January 2024, according to AAA.
Venezuela has some of the biggest oil reserves in the world, and President Trump said he wants to reboot the South American country’s oil industry.
Here’s what some experts are saying about what the situation means for America’s gas prices.
Will the U.S. raid in Venezuela affect Texas gas prices?
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, made it clear that drivers should not expect that.
“NO – gas prices are not about to plummet just because what’s happened in Venezuela. Situation takes much longer and has a much smaller impact than most couch analysts realize,” De Haan posted on X.
In his weekly fuel update, he also pointed out that even if Venezuela begins rebuilding its oil industry, it will be a slow process.
“It could take years of positive developments for additional supply to meaningfully move the needle, and the impact on U.S. gasoline prices may ultimately be limited,” he wrote.
Why are people worried about price swings after the raid?
Much of the concern around Venezuela comes from the idea that its oil reserves could quickly flood the market or disrupt supply.
But Venezuela’s current production is low compared to what it once was, and restarting its industry would take years of investment and rebuilding.
Industry data shows the country produces only a small amount of the world’s oil at the moment.
The United States, meanwhile, has strong production of its own. That helps keep gas prices steady and prevents sudden swings in response to international events.
There are a few refineries on the Gulf Coast that can process Venezuela’s heavier crude, but experts say those supply chains can’t be restarted overnight.
Even if Venezuela ramps up output eventually, it will not show up at Texas pumps anytime soon.
What is actually driving Texas gas prices right now?
The biggest reason Texans are seeing relief at the pump is simply the time of year. Gas prices tend to drop during winter when people drive less and demand slows.
De Haan said that trend is playing out again this season.
“For now, I expect gas prices to bottom out in the weeks ahead before beginning their seasonal climb toward March,” he wrote.
National GasBuddy data shows the most common gas price sits around $2.70 per gallon.
Diesel prices have also fallen, and Texas is among the states with some of the lowest diesel averages in the country at $2.99, according to the latest fuel reports.
Could Venezuela influence Texas fuel prices in the future?
Possibly, but it would take time.
If Venezuela eventually restores its oil industry, Gulf Coast refineries could see more heavy crude available to process.
But De Haan said even that would not make an immediate or dramatic difference for drivers.
GasBuddy’s annual fuel outlook projects the national yearly average to fall below $3 per gallon in 2026, which would be the lowest since 2020.
“As global central banks slammed the brakes on an overheated economy and new refining capacity came online, we’ve seen fuel prices ease year after year… For the first time in a long time, the wind is clearly behind drivers’ backs,” De Haan wrote.
The Gulf Coast, including Texas, is expected to stay one of the lowest-priced regions in the country.
