Handicapping the Oscars 2016

Sunday’s Oscars will unfurl with all the preening pomp and fashion circumstance we’ve come to expect from Hollywood, but there won’t be any denying the elephant in the ballroom.

For the second year in a row, the academy has failed to nominate any actors of color in the major categories. The #OscarSoWhite hashtag and cause have gone viral, and the subsequent boycott, launched by actress Jada Pinkett Smith in January, has sucked up much of the public-relations oxygen surrounding the show.

Everyone from Steven Spielberg (who told The Hollywood Reporter that he was surprised by the omission of Beasts of No Nation star Idris Elba and the film Straight Outta Compton from the list of nominees) to Best Actress nominee Charlotte Rampling (who labeled the boycott and subsequent calls for more diversity in Hollywood as “racist to whites,” though she later said she was misinterpreted) has had something to say on the matter.

Oscars host Chris Rock has even dubbed the Oscars “The White BET Awards.” No doubt the topic will be a major subject in his comedy Sunday.

But amid the controversy, the academy will put on a brave face Sunday and celebrate the movie industry’s blessings — like the fact that 2015 was a huge year at the box office, with receipts exceeding $11 billion for the first time.

Of course, it can thank Star Wars: Episode VII — The Force Awakens and its multicultural cast for some of that good fortune, but even here it can’t get away from allegations of being out of touch and out of step with a new generation of moviegoers. Star Wars is nominated for five Oscars — but none in the major categories. And the long and ongoing struggle between merit and the marketplace continues.

As we handicap this year’s list of contenders, one thing is clear: A fire has been lit in Hollywood, and it will take more than a night of self-congratulation to extinguish it.

Best Picture

This is the category that sparks much of the outcry. The academy recently expanded the number of nominees allowed from five to 10, theoretically making room for worthy indie, animated or foreign-language films that would never have stood a chance in previous years.

But most years the nominations have topped out at eight (like this year and last) or nine (two years ago), and worthy contenders such as Beasts of No Nation, Creed or Straight Outta Compton still get left out. The beloved animated film Inside Out also was left on the outside looking in..

Still, it’s a thematically varied lineup this year. That films as widely varied as the electrifying Mad Max: Fury Road and the quiet but intense Room are both in contention is a good thing.

Contenders: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

What should win: Spotlight, a riveting journalistic procedural, remains my favorite film of 2015. But, as a longtime fan of the “Mad Max” franchise and director George Miller’s breathless and brilliantly conceived sun-scorched vision of post-apocalyptic Australia, I certainly wouldn’t be disappointed if it walked off with Hollywood’s highest honor. It’s the most original and unique film of the group.

Who will win: Spotlight seemed like a shoo-in in the fall. A serious film on a serious topic (child abuse in the Roman Catholic Church) and based on a true story is catnip to Oscar voters. And The Big Short was named the top film at the Producers Guild Awards. But this has turned out to be the year of The Revenant, which earned a leading 12 nominations and has all the momentum. The brutal revenge story of a frontier tracker left for dead has already been named best picture at the BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscar) and the Golden Globes. It seems like the Oscar is just a formality at this point.

Best Director

It’s possible for the academy to split the Best Picture and Best Director vote. It happened two years ago when Alfonso Cuarón won for Gravity and Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture. Last year, it went by the more usual playbook and gave both honors to Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Birdman.

Contenders: Lenny Abrahamson, Room; Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant; Tom McCarthy, Spotlight; Adam McKay, The Big Short; George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Who should win: Miller, for keeping all the moving — and speeding — parts together to make a film that extends the breathtaking vision he originally showcased in the first Mad Max more than 35 years ago.

Who will win: Ordinarily, the smart money would go with Iñárritu. The Revenant director won top honors from the Directors Guild, BAFTA and the Golden Globes this year. But since he just won last year for Birdman, there may be some reluctance to give it to him again. According to IMDb, John Ford is the only person to win back-to-back directing Oscars, for The Grapes of Wrath (1940) and How Green Was My Valley (1941).

So if that’s the case, Miller has a good chance. While sci-fi and fantasy are often overlooked in the Oscars’ major categories, some may feel it’s Miller’s time, just as it was Peter Jackson’s in 2004 for his third “Lord of the Rings” film, The Return of the King.

Best Actress

There must be an academy edict that mandates Jennifer Lawrence be nominated in either the actress or supporting category, because JLaw has been in the mix on four of the past six Oscar nights, this year for the underwhelming Joy.

The contenders: Cate Blanchett, Carol; Brie Larson, Room; Jennifer Lawrence, Joy; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Who should win: Blanchett gave a strong yet subtle performance as a woman coming to terms with her sexuality in 1950s New York. Similarly, Rampling gives a master class in dramatic subtlety as a woman who discovers her marriage may not be what she thinks it is in the quietly powerful 45 Years.

Who will win: When Carol came out, Blanchett looked like she was a lock for another Oscar. But then Larson, so convincing as the desperate but determined mom held captive with her young son in Room, started hauling in all the awards-season metal. She won a BAFTA, a Screen Actors Guild Award and a Golden Globe. She’ll win again Sunday night, though it’s a shame her impressive young co-star, Jacob Tremblay, didn’t get some Oscar recognition, too (see the supporting actor category).

Best Actor

This category is tailor-made for Oscar voters, with four of the five nominees playing characters ripped from real life, one of whom (The Danish Girl) showcases a major physical transformation, another (The Revenant) filmed under extremely trying conditions and yet another (Trumbo) whose story takes place during the McCarthy blacklist era. They love that stuff.

The contenders: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Matt Damon, The Martian; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Who should win: Fassbender is phenomenal as the emotionally impenetrable Jobs. He disappears into the character, but the film itself is something of a stiff.

Who will win: This is DiCaprio’s year. He has already won the SAG Award, the BAFTA and the Golden Globe, so it will be a shock if, after four nominations that ended in disappointment, he doesn’t get it this time.

Best Supporting Actress

Last year, it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that Patricia Arquette would get the statue for her role as the beleaguered mom in Boyhood. This year, it’s not so cut and dried.

The contenders: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight; Rooney Mara, Carol; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight; Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Who should win: If this were an award for sheer fortitude, Leigh would take it walking away. She threw herself into the role of a vile, racist outlaw/prisoner in The Hateful Eight with fearless abandon. But Mara’s shy take on a woman just starting to come into her own is a more layered and rewarding portrayal.

Who will win: This is one of the more fun categories, as there’s no clear-cut leader. Vikander won the SAG Award; Winslet won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. But Vikander may have the edge if only because The Danish Girl was the better-received film.

Best Supporting Actor

(The Elba omission possibly could be explained by the fact that Beasts of No Nation was made by the streaming service Netflix, and many in traditional Hollywood were not happy that the film was available for streaming on the same day as its theatrical release.)

The contenders: Christian Bale, The Big Short; Tom Hardy, The Revenant; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Sylvester Stallone, Creed

But Stallone’s take on his iconic role of a former underdog/champion turned aging coach is a comeback story Oscar voters can’t resist. It helps that Stallone is good in the part and this is the only chance for Creed — which some thought might clinch a Best Director or Best Picture nomination — to get attention.

For an interactive graphic on the Oscar statue, click here.

This story was originally published February 24, 2016 at 12:00 PM with the headline "Handicapping the Oscars 2016."