Who will take top awards at 58th Grammys? Our picks

Traditionally, amassing a great many Grammy nominations ensures an artist will enjoy a golden evening.

That said, when it comes to rap and R&B artists, racking up a lot of nominations rarely translates to signature wins.

In the past five years, artists like Jay Z (who earned nine nominations in 2014, and six in 2013) or Kanye West (who earned six in 2013, seven in 2012) tend to monopolize categories other than what are designated as the big three: song, album and record of the year.

The Grammy wins are still impressive, certainly, but the top-tier categories are frequently a wasteland for deserving hip-hop and R&B talents. (You’d have to go back to 2004, when Beyonce won five Grammys and Outkast won three, including album of the year, to find the last time R&B and hip-hop artists thoroughly dominated the field of nominees.)

Perhaps that will change in 2016, as the 58th annual Grammys roster finds Kendrick Lamar atop this year’s class, with 11 total nominations (one shy of the all-time record, Michael Jackson’s dozen nominations in 1984). He’s competing in two of the big three — song and album of the year — and there’s a good chance Grammy voters will make a statement, rewarding one of the year’s most sonically and lyrically ambitious releases, in a moment when the music is, sadly, painfully relevant.

Here are my picks for this year’s Grammys.

Record of the year

This category is indicative of the increasing strain this awards show finds itself under. There is pressure to maintain interest — read: booking musicians that would translate to high TV ratings — while also not ignoring the great work being released by artists. It’s a tension often dissipated in favor of making a splash.

Still, the roster of nominees here isn’t all bad news: D’Angelo, Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars, Ed Sheeran, Taylor Swift, and the Weeknd are the contenders, with D’Angelo and the Weeknd balancing out the more mainstream quartet of Ronson, Mars, Sheeran and Swift.

This one boils down to a three-way race: D’Angelo most deserves it, but Uptown Funk was a beast, and never discount Swift when it comes to trophies.

Should win: D’Angelo and the Vanguard, Really Love

Will win: Taylor Swift, Blank Space

Album of the year

The most eclectic of the big three categories this year, album of the year features some truly worthy nominees, not least being Alabama Shakes’ Sound & Color and Chris Stapleton’s gritty Traveller. Those LPs are joined by Kendrick Lamar’s electrifying To Pimp a Butterfly, Taylor Swift’s 1989 and the Weeknd’s Beauty Behind the Madness.

While Alabama Shakes’ psychedelic swing for the fences is admirable, this contest will likely be a Lamar/Swift faceoff, with the rapper perhaps walking off with a well-deserved accolade for one of the year’s most urgent collections.

Should win: Kendrick Lamar, To Pimp a Butterfly

Will win: Kendrick Lamar, To Pimp a Butterfly

Song of the year

This category features a little overlap with record of the year, as Taylor Swift (Blank Space) and Ed Sheeran (Thinking Out Loud) are likewise nominated here. The contenders are rounded out by Kendrick Lamar (Alright), Little Big Town (Girl Crush), and Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth (See You Again).

Should win: Kendrick Lamar, Alright

Will win: Taylor Swift, Blank Space

Best new artist

Best new artist is a category that reliably prompts head-scratching. This year’s crop is as scattershot as could be expected — inescapable pop starlet Meghan Trainor and critical darling Courtney Barnett in the mix with hunky neo-country crooner Sam Hunt, R&B up-and-comer James Bay and YouTube sensation Tori Kelly — with no clear favorite.

In a just world, Barnett would bag the prize, but those odds are long. Given the relative scarcity of the other nominees save Trainor, it would seem as if she will easily claim this Grammy.

Should win: Courtney Barnett

Will win: Meghan Trainor

Best country album

For all the critical hand-wringing about the health of country music, these five albums do a fine job of skimming what little cream there is from the Nashville crop. Sam Hunt, Little Big Town, Ashley Monroe, Chris Stapleton and Kacey Musgraves are competing here, and, honestly, any one of those records would make a fitting choice.

Given Stapleton’s swift ascent and Musgraves’ own upward trajectory, this category comes down to these two troubadours, with an edge being given the heavily bearded brains behind one of last year’s best releases.

Should win: Kacey Musgraves, Pageant Material

Will win: Chris Stapleton, Traveller

This story was originally published February 10, 2016 at 10:31 AM with the headline "Who will take top awards at 58th Grammys? Our picks."