McLennan County home values flat in preliminary appraisals

Waco's housing market may have gone flat the past year, the average appraised homestead value countywide up only 1%. Some cities actually saw dips in market value, among them Robinson, Bellmead, Crawford, Lorena and West.

The city of Waco and Waco Independent School District split the difference, the city seeing a 0.43% increase in residential appraised values, the school district suffering a 0.29% drop, according to preliminary figures from the McLennan Central Appraisal District, reflecting year-over-year changes.

Average market value for a home in Waco now stands at $266,242; in Waco ISD, $217,246, according to preliminary values.

Taxing entities use appraised values to prepare budgets and set tax rates, so cities and school districts have a stake in appraisals and their fluctuations from year to year. Yet to go public are commercial and industrial appraisals.

"A 1% increase in appraised values across McLennan County is actually a healthy sign for our housing market," said Ashton Gustafson, a local real estate agent who tracks local housing data and trends. "While it may seem modest compared to the double-digit appreciation we experienced from 2020 through early 2022, those years were highly unusual and driven by historically low interest rates, unprecedented demand, and limited inventory."

Those were the days when agents reported multiple offers on homes before ink dried on listings. Some sellers got more than they were asking.

"On the residential side, values for 2026 were pretty flat overall," MCAD Chief Appraiser Jim Halbert said by email. "That lines up with a market that's leveled off after the big jumps we saw in previous years."

Preliminary appraisals show the average, or mean, market value of an owner-occupied single-family home in McLennan County this year is $307,901, a 1.02% increase from 2025. But the median value slipped half-a-percent, from $259,290 to $257,988. Median value means an equal number of homes are appraised above and below that price.

County Administrator Dustin Chapman said gauging those numbers' impact on budget preparation would prove difficult at this point in the process.

"The Commissioners Court has not yet begun its budget process for the upcoming fiscal year, so it would be premature to speculate on any potential tax rate decisions at this point," Chapman said. "We do not yet know what budget requests will be submitted by county departments or what the county's overall financial needs will be.

"It's also important to note that economic development projects, including Graphics Packaging and other commercial and industrial investments in McLennan County, have helped broaden the tax base and ease some of the burden on residential taxpayers, As the budget process moves forward, Commissioners Court will evaluate all available revenue sources, expenditure requests, and economic factors before considering any tax rate decisions."

In Woodway, the average market value increased 2.46%, from $419,594 to $429,908, while the median increased 0.93%, from $368,065 to $371,500. Robinson homes dipped 1.56% in market value on average, from $339,365 to $334,057, while median value slipped 1.92%, from $307,500 to $301,610.

Bellmead's average market value dipped 3.25%, from $171,728 to $166,152, while its median dropped 3.39%, from $163,420 to $157,876.

Average market values in Hewitt increased 2.11%, from $307,179 to $313,646, while median values rose 1.46%, from $292,800 to $297,082.

"Because MCAD relies heavily on comparable sales to establish values, the smaller increase in appraisals reflects what we've been seeing on the ground," Gustafson said. "Homes are still selling, and well-priced properties continue to attract buyers, but we're no longer seeing the consistent widespread bidding wars and dramatic year-over-year price increases that characterized the pandemic-era market.

"When the Federal Reserve began increasing interest rates in 2022, the housing market naturally transitioned from a period of rapid appreciation to one of normalization. In many ways, that leveling-off has been beneficial. It has helped restore a measure of affordability for buyers and created a more balanced marketplace where home values are being supported by fundamentals rather than extraordinary market conditions."

The latest numbers from MCAD reveal glaring differences between cities and accompanying school districts across McLennan County.

Though market values in Lorena fell fractionally, from $315,319 to $313,314, they jumped nearly 2%, from $436,452 to $445,085, in Lorena ISD, which includes more territory than the city. The city of West experienced a 0.47% drop in average home values, from $231,645 to $230,546, but West ISD jumped 7.64%, from $326,114 to $351,041.

Crawford ISD enjoys the highest average home market value in McLennan County, pegging $526,292, though that reflects a 6.01% dip from last year's $559,940. The city of Crawford suffered a 7.57% plunge in average market value, falling from $339,839 to $314,127.

Gustafson said he would caution against interpreting slower appreciation in appraised values as a weakness in the housing market.

"The Greater Waco market remains fundamentally strong," he said. "Our region continues to benefit from population growth, economic development, educational institutions, healthcare employment, and its strategic location within the Central Texas corridor. Those factors continue to support long-term housing demand.

"In short, a 1% increase in appraised values tells me that the market is stabilizing, not stalling. After several years of extraordinary growth, a period of measured and sustainable appreciation is likely a positive development for both homeowners and future buyers."

Halbert said nothing really surprised him this year about appraisals.

"The data aligned closely with what we've been seeing in the marketplace - steadying prices, more normal transaction patterns, and a shift away from the volatility of the last few years," Halbert said.

Still, the normalizing of property values has not slowed the stream of people upset about their appraisals and willing to contest them.

"A big factor appears to be the use of property tax agents, which has made it easier for homeowners to file and pursue protests even in years where values are relatively stable," he said. "This year, close to 80% of protests have been filed by an agent."

Halbert said informal meetings with appraisers started April 22. Formal hearings in front of the Appraisal Review Board will start Monday.

MCAD must certify the appraisal roll and submit totals to taxing entities by July 25.

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