Two Major US Airlines Want To Merge-Experts Warn Flyers Would Pay the Price

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby reportedly pitched a potential merger between United and American Airlines to President Donald Trump in late February, according to two sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reported earlier this week.

No further information on the possible merger has been revealed. A spokesperson for United told Newsweek: “We don't have anything to share.”

Newsweek has contacted American Airlines, the White House, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ), and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) for comment.

Experts who spoke to Newsweek say that, while a merger of this scale would face significant regulatory hurdles, its potential impact on passengers and the global airline industry would be far‑reaching.

Antitrust Scrutiny and DOJ Concerns

Experts overwhelmingly say the likelihood of regulatory approval would be low. Analyst Matt Woodruff, the head of aerospace & defense, and transportation at research firm CreditSights, told Newsweek that “the likelihood of DOJ approval appears low without major concessions/commitments to modify networks.”

Woodruff pointed to the DOJ's recent rejection of the JetBlue-Spirit merger, noting that, even though that combined airline would have held just 9 to 10 percent of the domestic market, the DOJ focused heavily on route‑level overlap. In that case, JetBlue and Spirit overlapped on 30 to 40 percent of nonstop routes, with particularly high market share at Fort Lauderdale, Woodruff said.

Applying similar standards, Woodruff said a United-American merger would trigger antitrust concerns across at least 12 major U.S. markets. The most severe concentration would be at Chicago O'Hare International Airport, where the combined carrier would hold an estimated 88 percent share of departures.

Woodruff said other “problematic markets” would include Dallas Fort Worth International Airport and Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Texas, Charlotte Douglas International Airport in North Carolina, Denver International Airport in Colorado, Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, Washington Dulles International Airport and Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Washington, D.C., Philadelphia International Airport in Pennsylvania, Miami International Airport in Florida, San Francisco International Airport and Los Angeles International Airport in California, as well as Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.

Mark Dombroff, an aviation attorney at Fox Rothschild, told Newsweek the deal would “almost certainly draw heavy scrutiny from both the Department of Justice and the Department of Transportation,” with opposition and support from traveler groups, cities, airports, unions, and rival airlines.

Higher Fares and Reduced Choice for Passengers

For consumers, experts warn that prices would likely rise while choices would shrink. Woodruff said historical data shows fares dropped an estimated 17 percent when Spirit entered a route, while JetBlue data indicated fares rose 30 percent when Spirit exited a route. He added that U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has said past airline mergers have resulted in 5 to 10 percent higher fares.

Trial lawyer Alec Schultz of Hilgers PLLC told Newsweek that such a merger would “very likely” increase ticket prices over time and reduce consumer choice without significant divestitures. Schultz said the resulting airline could approach “monopoly power” in key hub markets like Chicago and parts of Texas.

Michael McCormick is the founder of Travel Again Advisory, a strategic M&A (merger and acquisitions) consultancy advising travel technology companies, investors, and global travel providers. McCormick echoed the concerns raised by Schultz and Woodruff, saying that, while airlines often cite efficiencies, “the bigger effect is reduced competitive pressure.”

Over time, he said that passengers could face higher fares, fewer choices on overlapping routes, reduced loyalty program value, and increased dominance by a single carrier at major airports.

McCormick added: “In markets where United and American currently compete head-to-head, consumers would almost certainly feel the difference. A deal like this would effectively erode the remaining impact of airline deregulation from almost 50 years ago.”

Required Divestitures and Structural Changes

Woodruff said the concerns over the aforementioned problematic markets could theoretically be addressed through divestitures-the disposing of a company's assets through a sale, exchange, or closure-and network changes, but the scale would be “enormous.”

Sheldon Jacobson is a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana‑Champaign whose research specializes in data science and risk-based decision-making under uncertainty. He told Newsweek that an American-United merger would not happen without “significant structural changes.”

Jacobson noted that both airlines collectively control most gates at Chicago O'Hare, meaning substantial gate concessions would be required. Jacobson also highlighted the Washington, D.C., market, where American and United dominate separate hub airports, calling it another major challenge for regulators.

Global Industry Shake‑Up

Beyond the U.S., Woodruff said the merger would “reshape the world order” of aviation. The combined airline would be the largest in the world by every metric, with annual revenue exceeding $100 billion, dwarfing rivals such as Delta and Lufthansa.

Woodruff also warned of major disruption to airline alliances. United is a founding member of Star Alliance, while American helped found Oneworld. A merger could dismantle one alliance or force a merger between the two. Additionally, the deal would require restructuring of international joint ventures, potentially triggering antitrust reviews in Europe, the U.K., Japan, and elsewhere.

While McCormick said it is understandable that United’s Kirby would explore bold moves in a highly consolidated industry, he added that “the odds of getting a deal like this across the finish line are extremely low.”

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This story was originally published April 16, 2026 at 9:40 AM.