Oscar picks 2015: Boyhood and Birdman will soar

Hollywood loves a great coming-of-age story, and this year Richard Linklater’s Boyhood is an amazing chronicle of that journey. It is leading the pack of Best Picture nominees for the 87th Academy Awards, to be presented Sunday night. But don’t count out Birdman, Michael Keaton’s gritty and graceful comeback as once-famous superhero action star trying to reclaim his dignity as an actor with a star vehicle on stage.

Can Birdman swoop in and steal the show? Pop your popcorn, take a seat and check out are our predictions for Oscars’ big winners come Sunday.

Best Picture

The nominees: American Sniper, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

The race: This seems to be a race between the two “B” movies: Boyhood and Birdman. Boyhood went home with the Golden Globe and the BAFTA (British equivalent to the Oscars), while Birdman nabbed the Directors Guild and Producers Guild honors.

Even their detractors admit that both are genuinely unique. Boyhood, filmed over the course of 12 years, is a keenly observed chronicle of childhood and adolescence, at once familiar and revelatory. For Texas viewers, it has an added sense of realism as it was filmed in Austin, Houston and San Marcos, and the family at the heart of it feels like people we know.

Birdman, on the other hand, is about as far from Boyhood — both geographically and emotionally — as possible. Set in the comparatively rarefied world of New York theater, it revolves around an actor, who once was a big-screen superhero named Birdman, struggling to make a comeback on the stage.

It’s a talky, hyperactive shot of cinematic adrenaline, fueled in part by director Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s swooping and tracking camera style.

Boyhood probably will edge out Birdman, on the sheer strength of its cinematic achievement, but my personal favorite is Selma, which manages to plumb a depth and truth about social dynamics of the past 50 years that is sorely missing from the rest of the field.

What should win: Selma

What will win: Boyhood

Best Director

The nominees: Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

The race: Again, this is going to come down to Boyhood vs. Birdman. Iñárritu was the Directors Guild favorite, and that often means getting the Oscar is just a formality. Richard Linklater’s feat of taking a dozen years to make Boyhood is more deserving, in my opinion, but Birdman has more razzle-dazzle filmmaking in its technical arsenal. As with Best Picture, there’s a slight chance Wes Anderson’s idiosyncratic vision for The Grand Budapest Hotel might steal the show, but it’s not likely.

What should win: Boyhood

What will win: Birdman

Best Actor

The nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

The race: Coming out of the Globes, BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Redmayne was the favorite; he won all three. On top of that, he plays Stephen Hawking, a real-life person who overcomes the odds despite a major disability. This is the kind of thing that’s catnip to academy voters.

But Michael Keaton is an extremely well-liked Hollywood veteran who delivers a risky, theatrical performance in Birdman. It will be seen as brave, and the Oscar could be viewed a career award (he has never won).

Along those lines, Sniper’s Cooper is also a Hollywood darling, but that may not be enough this year.

Who should win: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Who will win: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Best Actress

The nominees: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

The race: After three previous nominations, the stars are in perfect alignment for Julianne Moore to finally win one thi year. Like Redmayne, she’s playing a person dealing with a crippling illness, in this case early onset Alzheimer’s disease. Then there’s the fact that she turns in a riveting performance.

As much as Marion Cotillard deserves accolades for her turn as a working-class woman whose job is on the line in Two Days, One Night and as good as Witherspoon is as a woman finding herself in Wild, this night will belong to Moore.

Who should win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Who will win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

The race: Here’s the one time where Streep is the least likely to hear her name called. The one most likely to is Arquette, who won this category at the Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes and BAFTA.

Her take on a woman trying to raise two kids while simultaneously going to school and marrying unsuitable men strikes the right note of struggle and weariness. When she breaks down near the film’s end and says that she thought life would be so much more, it’s a moment of striking truth in a film full of them.

Who should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Who will win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

The race: As with Julianne Moore and Patricia Arquette, this category seems to be owned by one person: J.K. Simmons. His cruel, abusive band leader in Whiplash is the kind of meaty role actors dream of biting into, and Simmons — a longtime character actor with a history of memorable parts — does so with enthusiasm.

Yet, while Simmons’ sadistic portrayal is riveting, Ruffalo’s more layered take on wrestler Dave Schultz in the generally lackluster Foxcatcher has more long-term rewards.

Who should win: Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Who will win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

This story was originally published February 20, 2015 at 12:08 PM.