Oscars 2017: Texas Western should beat LA musical, come Hell or High Water

Two things can be said about this year’s crop of films up for honors at this year’s Academy Awards, airing 6 p.m. Sunday on WFAA/Channel 8.

One is that it’s a very strong field of contenders representing wonderfully varied slices of life. The #OscarSoWhite protests that have popped up in the last couple of years may have had a ripple effect: Those up for statues span a wider-than-usual range of race, age and subject matter.

How this will play out in terms of who goes home with gold remains to be seen. So let’s peer into Hollywood’s immediate future and try to divine who will walk away with the golden statues.

Best picture

Nominees: “Arrival,” “Fences,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “Hidden Figures,” “La La Land,” “Lion,” “Manchester by the Sea,” “Moonlight”

Will the musical “La La Land” have a lot to sing about on Oscar night?

It certainly is the odds-on favorite to dominate as it’s up in 14 categories, tying the record set by “All About Eve” (1950) and “Titanic” (1997) for the most nominations. With the British BAFTA for best picture and Golden Globe for best musical/comedy in its back pocket, it’s certainly coming into the Academy Awards with the wind at its back and a song in its heart.

Hollywood loves movies about itself — remember the silent-movie salute “The Artist” walking off with five statues, including best picture in 2012 — and that will work in the favor of “La La Land,” too.

But there has been a backlash against it in recent weeks and a sudden surge of interest in “Hidden Figures.” The film about three African-American women who worked in the early days of the NASA space program has overtaken “La La Land” to become this year’s highest grossing best-picture nominee.

Meanwhile, the powerful gay coming-of-age story “Moonlight” and the downbeat family drama “Manchester by the Sea” aren’t out of the question as winners either.

My personal favorites are the contemporary Western “Hell or High Water” (but its chances are as remote as its West Texas landscape) and “Moonlight.” But when push comes to shove comes to “... and the Oscar goes to,” Hollywood probably will stick with the film that flatters itself.

Should win: “Hell or High Water”

Will win: “La La Land”

Director

Nominees: Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”), Mel Gibson (“Hacksaw Ridge”), Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”), Kenneth Lonergan (“Manchester by the Sea”), Denis Villeneuve (“Arrival”)

There’s no contest here. This one is Chazelle’s to lose. He won the Directors Guild of America Award, the Golden Globe and the BAFTA in this category. On top of that, Chazelle is well-liked in Hollywood (his last film, “Whiplash,” won three Oscars in 2015) and the industry appreciates his attempt to revive interest in the old-fashioned musical genre. And the general rule of thumb is that the film that wins best director goes on to win best picture.

However, that’s not always the case. One of the most striking examples is Steven Spielberg winning for “Saving Private Ryan” in 1998 but losing out to “Shakespeare in Love” for best picture. “La La Land” is certainly a deft display of music and movement but Jenkins’ beautifully realized tale of coming to terms with one’s self is more haunting.

Should win: Barry Jenkins

Will win: Damien Chazelle

Actor

Nominees: Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”), Andrew Garfield (“Hacksaw Ridge”), Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”), Viggo Mortensen (“Captain Fantastic”), Denzel Washington (“Fences”)

This is where the “La La Land” train might derail. Gosling won the Golden Globe in the comedy/musical category, but Affleck won in the drama category as well as the BAFTA, while Washington took the honor at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. The SAG Awards often are an indicator of which way the voting winds are blowing.

Working with the words of playwright August Wilson, Washington gets memorable dialogue in the part as a black father in the ’50s dealing with a life of disappointment and he delivers it forcefully. It’s the kind of role that screams “Give this man an Oscar!”

Should win: Denzel Washington

Will win: Denzel Washington

Actress

Nominees: Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”), Ruth Negga (“Loving”), Natalie Portman (“Jackie”), Emma Stone (“La La Land”) and Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”)

You know it’s a strong category when veteran Streep is the least likely to go home with the statue. As with Chazelle in the director’s lineup, this one has Stone’s name on it. She won the Golden Globe for best actress in a comedy/musical, as well as the actress award at the BAFTA Awards and the SAG Awards. There could be an upset — French actress Huppert won best actress in a drama at the Golden Globes, and Portman in the highly stylized Jackie is remarkable — but it’s unlikely.

Should win: Natalie Portman

Will win: Emma Stone

Supporting actor

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”), Jeff Bridges (“Hell or High Water”), Lucas Hedges (“Manchester by the Sea”), Dev Patel (“Lion”), Michael Shannon (“Nocturnal Animals”)

This is an extremely tough category featuring impressive turns from 20-year-old Hedges and 67-year-old Bridges and everyone in between. It’s certainly great to see the likes of Shannon and Patel getting increased recognition. But the Oscar probably is going home with 43-year-old Ali, whose role as the drug dealer turned father figure in the touching “Moonlight” won him the SAG Award.

Should win: Mahershala Ali

Will win: Mahershala Ali

Supporting actress

Nominees: Viola Davis, (“Fences”), Naomie Harris (“Moonlight”), Nicole Kidman (“Lion”), Octavia Spencer (“Hidden Figures”), Michelle Williams (“Manchester by the Sea”)

Davis owns this one. She has some stiff competition, particularly from Williams, but her performance in “Fences” — honed by a Broadway run where she played this character opposite Washington — is explosive. She won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and the SAG Award in this category, so the Oscar seems a foregone conclusion at this point.

Should win: Viola Davis

Will win: Viola Davis

This story was originally published February 22, 2017 at 6:40 PM with the headline "Oscars 2017: Texas Western should beat LA musical, come Hell or High Water."