2015 Oscars race is all about the ‘B’ movies

<137>" alt="Top photo, Michael Keaton stars in <italic>Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance). </italic>Above, Ellar Coltrane, at age 6, in <italic>Boyhood.</italic><252><137>his image released by IFC Films shows Ellar Coltrane at age six in a scene from the film,"Boyhood." The film is nominated for an Oscar Award for best feature. The 87th Annual Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2015 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/IFC Films)<252><137>" />

It has been a tough year for Hollywood.

After years of escalating numbers, box office was down in 2014 — just over 5 percent from 2013, according to The Wall Street Journal — with an especially big dip during the heavily hyped summer season. Throw in the Sony hacking scandal over the film The Interview and stepped-up competition from TV, video-on-demand, and streaming, and mainstream Hollywood wouldn’t seem to have a lot of celebrate.

But it will be smiling through the tears Sunday night for the 87th Annual Academy Awards.

Like last year — when 12 Years a Slave won for Best Picture and Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity) won for Best Director — no one film is expected to dominate. Expect to see the love spread around among Boyhood, Birdman, Still Alice and Whiplash, while leaving room for a couple of surprises here and there.

So, pop your popcorn and take a seat. Here are our predictions for the Oscars’ big categories.

Best Picture

What’s up: American Sniper, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

What’s happening: If the awards season is anything to go by so far, this is a race between the two “B” movies: Boyhood and Birdman. Boyhood went home with the Golden Globe and the BAFTA (British equivalent to the Oscars), while Birdman nabbed the Directors Guild and Producers Guild honors.

Even their detractors admit that both are genuinely unique. Boyhood, filmed over the course of 12 years, is a keenly observed chronicle of childhood and adolescence, at once familiar and revelatory. For Texas viewers, it has an added sense of realism as it was filmed in Austin, Houston and San Marcos, and the family at the heart of it feels like people we know.

Birdman, on the other hand, is about as far from Boyhood — both geographically and emotionally — as possible. Set in the comparatively rarefied world of New York theater, it revolves around an actor, who once was a big-screen superhero named Birdman, struggling to make a comeback on the stage.

It’s a talky, hyperactive shot of cinematic adrenaline, fueled in part by director Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s swooping and tracking camera style.

Boyhood probably will edge out Birdman — the Globes and BAFTA are often indicators — but Birdman getting it would hardly be a shock. Though there’s a slight chance that the extremely well-liked The Grand Budapest Hotel, which won the Globe in the comedy/musical category, could slip in there.

As much as Boyhood deserves its praise, my personal favorite is Selma — which despite its flaws as history manages to plumb a truth about racial and political dynamics of the past 50 years — but, after being snubbed in all the other major categories, its Best Picture nomination feels like an afterthought and a consolation.

Certainly, actor David Oyelowo deserves some recognition for his take on Martin Luther King Jr., and director Ava DuVernay’s vision is masterful.

And it should be said that if the American public were voting, American Sniper would win, if box-office figures are an indication.

What should win: Selma

What will win: Boyhood

Best Director

Who’s up: Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

What’s happening: Again, this is going to come down to a Boyhood vs. Birdman battle. But this is one where the Bird is going to beat the Boy. After all, Iñárritu was the Directors Guild favorite, and that often means getting the Oscar is just a formality.

More than that, while Richard Linklater taking a dozen years to make Boyhood may be viewed by some as a scheduling feat, Birdman has more razzle-dazzle filmmaking in its technical arsenal. As with Best Picture, there’s a slight chance that Wes Anderson’s always idiosyncratic vision might steal the show, but the momentum is with Birdman.

What should win: Boyhood

What will win: Birdman or (the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Best Actor

Who’s up: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

What’s happening: Coming out of the Globes, BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Redmayne is a favorite, as he won all three. On top of that, he’s playing a real-life person who overcomes the odds despite a major disability. This is the kind of thing that’s catnip to academy voters.

However, this could be the year when precedent is upended as Michael Keaton may go home the winner. What he has going for him is that he is a Hollywood veteran who is extremely well-liked, and his risky, theatrical performance in Birdman is seen as brave. Moreover, this could be viewed as a career award for him (he has never won) while, the thinking goes, the young Redmayne will have many more chances.

Along those lines, Cooper is also well-liked in Hollywood, but that may not be enough to defeat Keaton or Redmayne.

Who should win: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Who will win: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Best Actress

Who’s up: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

What’s happening: Two words: Julianne Moore. She’s totally Oscar bait this year, as the stars are in perfect alignment for her. She won the Screen Actors Guild Award and the Golden Globe. She’s a veteran actress with a long Hollywood history who has been nominated four times but never won.

Like Redmayne, she’s playing a person dealing with a crippling illness, in this case early onset Alzheimer’s disease. Then there’s the fact that she turns in a riveting performance.

As much as Marion Cotillard deserves accolades for her turn as a working-class woman whose job is on the line in Two Days, One Night and as good as Witherspoon is as a woman finding herself in Wild, this night will belong to Moore.

Who should win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Who will win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Best Supporting Actress

Who’s up: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

What’s happening: Here’s the one time where Streep is the least likely of the five to hear her name called. The one most likely to is Arquette, who won in this category at the Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes and BAFTA.

Her take on a woman trying to raise two kids while simultaneously going to school and marrying unsuitable men strikes the right note of struggle and weariness. When she breaks down near the film’s end and says that she thought life would be so much more, it’s a moment of striking truth in a film full of them.

Who should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Who will win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Best Supporting Actor

Who’s up: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

What happening: As with Julianne Moore and Patricia Arquette, this category seems to be owned by one person: J.K. Simmons. His cruel, abusive band leader in Whiplash is the kind of meaty role actors dream of biting into, and Simmons — a longtime character actor with a history of memorable parts — does so with enthusiasm.

Unsurprisingly, he won at the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards and BAFTA. Yet, while Simmons’ portrayal is a joy to watch, Ruffalo’s more layered take on wrestler Dave Schultz in the generally lackluster Foxcatcher has more long-term rewards.

Who should win: Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Who will win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

This story was originally published February 18, 2015 at 1:11 PM with the headline "2015 Oscars race is all about the ‘B’ movies."