Mac Engel

Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield will be an NFL bust

Baker Mayfield is the best player in college football, and a worthy recipient of the Heisman Trophy, who will go on to become JAG in the NFL.

Mayfield is your typical NFL “Just Another Guy” in the making.

If Mayfield is smart, and there’s evidence to suggest that’s not a given, he will just follow the Colt McCoy, Chase Daniel model and be a good soldier and figure out the NFL.

In Oklahoma’s 41-17 win against TCU in the Big 12 title game on Saturday at JerryWorld, Mayfield did nothing to damage his overwhelming odds to win the Heisman Trophy, nor help his chances of being a good NFL quarterback.

Because he won’t be one.

As seen by too many previous examples to list, the Heisman doesn’t correlate to a long, successful NFL career. Mayfield will not be an upper tier NFL quarterback. Five years from now, he will be lucky to be an NFL quarterback.

He’s generously listed as 6-foot-1, and there is nothing to suggest he can be a typical drop-back passer, which is what all NFL teams want, and need, to succeed. He’s a good athlete who knows how to win, and once he puts on an NFL uniform you will see just how small he actually stands.

Mayfield is a great college quarterback who can make a game 1-on-11; he’s the 6-foot-5 center who can win an NCAA tournament basketball game but, when facing the biggest and meanest at the next level, will be exposed.

He’s also a punk who will earn a punch, kick, and a late hit or two – maybe from his own teammates – when he reaches the NFL.

Mayfield will likely fall in line with the many other great college quarterbacks who won the Heisman trophy but flamed out in the NFL: Robert Griffin III. Johnny Manziel. I’m calling Jameis Winston a bust right now. Sam Bradford. Tim Tebow. Troy Smith. Matt Leinart. Jason White. Eric Crouch. Chris Weinke. Danny Wuerffel. Gino Torretta. Charlie Ward. Ty Detmer. Andre Ware.

Those quarterbacks have won the Heisman trophy since 1989, all were NFL busts.

If Mayfield is smart, he will simply figure it out and try to get paid for as long as he can. Guys like former Texas quarterback Colt McCoy and Missouri star Chase Daniel aren’t starters, but they are NFL veterans cashing six-figure checks.

If Mayfield can make it that far, he’s a smashing success who will never buy a drink or dinner in Norman, Oklahoma, for the rest of his life.

1. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill was playing with, and possibly even out-playing, Mayfield in the game’s first 30 minutes before he and his teammates were buried in the second half.

In the first half, Hill completed 19 of 24 passes for 159 yards with two touchdowns, and he ran seven times for 36 yards. The Frogs trailed 24-17 after falling behind 17-0.

He did not keep it up in the third quarter as both he and his teammates were overwhelmed. His third-quarter interception was the type of play that will, wrongly, define his time at TCU.

He threw into double coverage from deep in his own territory; it’s the type of play a fifth-year senior can’t make.

No TCU player drew as much criticism as Hill did this season, most of it wrong. The only game where anyone can say he is the reason TCU loss was the 14-7 defeat at Iowa State.

The rest? Kenny Hill is a big reason TCU made the Big 12 title game and will likely go to the Alamo Bowl.

2. TCU’s defense was completely exposed by one team this season, which happened to be their opponent on Saturday. The Frogs allowed a total of 62 second-half points for the entire season, including just six in their previous seven second halves.

The Sooners out-scored TCU 17-0 in the second half on Saturday. The Sooners scored 79 points against TCU, including a defensive touchdown on TCU’s first offensive play Saturday.

The Sooners were held to less than 30 points in only one game this season, against Texas when they scored 29.

TCU did a much better job against Oklahoma running back Rodney Anderson on Saturday than it did in the first meeting when he went off for four touchdowns and 290 yards rushing/receiving. Anderson ran 24 times for 93 yards this time, but ... the Sooners had more toys to do the necessary damage.

2.5 Defensive end Mat Boesen was too small against Oklahoma’s Orlando Brown to make a difference. Boesen has 13 sacks this season, including 5.5 last week in the win against Baylor.

But beating Brown (6-foot-8, 345) was literally too big of a task for Boesen (6-4, 240). Boesen was no threat, and finished with no sacks.

3. TCU had a great season. The Horned Frogs were picked to finish fifth in the Big 12 preseason poll, and wound up winning 10 games and made the Big 12 title game.

They just were not better than Oklahoma.

Mac Engel: @macengelprof

Related stories from Fort Worth Star Telegram