World Cup Opener: Kalshi & Polymarket Odds for USA vs. Paraguay
The 2026 World Cup group stage is officially underway with Team USA taking the field on Friday, June 12th, against fellow Group D opponent, Paraguay. As they sit right now, prediction markets are heavily leaning on the Americans to win their first match.
Prediction markets are giving the U.S. Men's National Team similar chances to win their first match across the board. The World Cup prediction market on Kalshi has them listed at 50% to win, 29% chance to tie, and 23% chance for Paraguay to win. Polymarket's World Cup market has all the same percentages except Paraguay winning at 24%.
USA vs. Paraguay World Cup - Kalshi
- Moneyline: USA (50%) vs. Paraguay (23%), Draw (29%)
- Spread: USA -1.5 (24%)
- Total: 2.5 Goals (Under 60%)
USA vs. Paraguay World Cup - Polymarket
- Moneyline: USA (50%) vs. Paraguay (24%), Draw (29%)
- Spread: USA -1.5 (24%)
- Total: 2.5 Goals (Under 59%)
With both prediction markets listing the United States with a 50% chance to win, they are favored with similar payouts on both markets. A risk $10 on Kalshi offers a $9.32 profit, while Polymarket is at a $9.70 payout on the same $10 if the U.S. wins.
The U.S. has been favored to win with roughly a 50% chance since the markets first opened back in February. As for Paraguay, its winning percentage sat ahead of a draw until flipping on May 16th, which is where it has remained.
Friendly fallout
In the four international friendly matches leading up to the start of the World Cup, the United States posted a tough 1-3 record, having lost to Germany, Portugal, and Belgium, while picking up its only win against Senegal. Across those four games, they scored just six goals while allowing their opponents to run up 11 total.
To the United States' defense, Mauricio Pochettino used these games as an experimental process with heavy rotations, especially in their March games against Belgium and Portugal, where they conceded seven goals to their own two. In their only friendly win, it was Christian Pulisic who led the way with one goal and one assist en route to a 3-2 win over Senegal.
Paraguay went 2-1 in their international friendlies, having shut out Greece 1-0 and Nicaragua 4-0 while losing to Morocco 2-1.
USA vs. Paraguay history
This will be the eighth all-time meeting between the two nations, with the United States holding control, winning five of their seven meetings since 1930. Paraguay's two wins came in a Copa America meeting in 2007 and a friendly in 2011.
Over the last decade, they've played three times, with the United States beating them in the Copa America in 2016 and in two additional friendlies in 2018 and 2025.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as World Cup Opener: Kalshi & Polymarket Odds for USA vs. Paraguay.
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This story was originally published June 9, 2026 at 5:00 AM.