Over half of Texas counties at COVID ’tipping point’ as Christmas nears, data show
Daily COVID-19 cases in more than half of Texas’ 254 counties have reached a “tipping point” ahead of Christmas, according to data released by Harvard University.
Harvard’s tool charts coronavirus risks by state and county according to the number of daily new cases per 100,000 people over the past seven days.
The map shows four colors to represent the COVID-19 risk level in each county. Green means the county is on track for containment of the virus, yellow shows community spread, orange represents accelerated spread and red means the county has reached a tipping point where stay-at-home orders would be necessary to stop the spread.
As of Thursday, 149 counties are at the red level and an additional 77 are in the orange level. A week before Thanksgiving, there were 127 counties in the red level.
Where is it surging?
Collingsworth County, about 190 miles west of Oklahoma City in northern Texas, has the most daily new cases per 100,000 people with an average of 313.1 in the last week, data show. About 3,000 residents live in the county.
Terrell County, situated in between San Antonio and El Paso, has the second most daily cases with 239.3 new cases per 100,000 people.
Childress County, Edwards County and Terry County round out the bottom five in Texas. All of the counties have at least 150 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.
A month ago, Ochiltree and Brewster counties were faring the worst in Texas. Both counties remain in the red level.
There have been 1.36 million confirmed coronavirus cases in Texas and more than 24,000 deaths, according to state data. Texas recorded 14,805 new confirmed COVID-19 cases Wednesday, which is near its most in a single day.
Gov. Greg Abbott said Thursday the coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer and perhaps other companies could be widely available by March.
Abbott said he will take the vaccine at an appropriate time, the Star-Telegram reported.
What about the more populated counties?
Lubbock County, the 11th most populous county in Texas, is averaging 94.2 daily new cases per 100,000 residents — the 18th worst in the state.
Webb County, which includes Laredo, is also in the tipping point. There are on average 197 daily new cases in Webb County in the past seven days, among the worst in the state.
It pales in comparison to the state’s largest counties, Dallas County, where there is an average of 1,394 daily new cases in the last week.
County Judge Clay Jenkins said there is an “unprecedented high spread” of the virus, according to the Dallas News.
Harris County, which includes Houston, is also in the tipping point. There are more than 1,305 daily new cases on average in the county over the last week.
More than 24,000 people in Harris County currently have COVID-19 as of Wednesday, data show.
Fort Worth’s Tarrant County and San Antonio’s Bexar County are also in the tipping point with 1,108 and 950 daily new cases on average in the last week, respectively.
John Peter Smith Hospital in Fort Worth received its first COVID-19 vaccine doses Thursday, the Star-Telegram reported.
El Paso County, once one of the hardest hit counties in the state and entire country, remains in the tipping point but its cases have dwindled. The county is averaging 386 cases per day in the last week.
Holiday risk
The Georgia Institute of Technology released a map that helps assess the risk of at least one person at your Christmas celebrations having COVID-19.
A gathering of 50 people in Tarrant County poses a 83% chance of at least one person having COVID-19, the Georgia Tech data show. An event size of 10 people will pose a 30% chance.
Dozens of counties will present a 99% risk of at least one person in a gathering of 50 having COVID-19, including many in southwest and northwest Texas.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned against holiday gatherings with people not in your household.
It did the same prior to Thanksgiving, but more than 9 million Americans still traveled through airports for the holiday, CNBC reported.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, said that travel advisories and restrictions may be required during the holiday season to stop the spread of coronavirus.
“What we expect, unfortunately, as we go for the next couple of weeks into December, is that we might see a surge superimposed on the surge we are already in,” Fauci said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Nov. 29. “I don’t want to frighten people, except to say it is not too late to do something about this.”