Dozens of Texas counties at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ ahead of Thanksgiving, data show

Daily COVID-19 cases in half of Texas’ 254 counties have reached a “tipping point” ahead of Thanksgiving, according to data released by Harvard University.

Harvard’s tool charts coronavirus risks by state and county according to the number of daily new cases per 100,000 people over the past seven days.

The map shows four colors to represent the COVID-19 risk level in each county. Green means the county is on track for containment of the virus, yellow shows community spread, orange represents accelerated spread and red means the county has reached a tipping point where stay-at-home orders would be necessary to stop the spread.

As of Friday, 127 counties are at the red level and an additional 82 are in the orange level.

Cases are concentrated the most in the western portion of the state, including El Paso and Lubbock counties.

Ochiltree County, which has a population of around 10,000 in northern Texas, has the most daily new cases per 100,000 people with an average of 254.2 in the last week, data show.

Brewster County in southwest Texas has the second-most daily cases with 200.2 per 100,000 people, while the Lubbock suburb Hale County has 195.6.

There have been more than 1 million confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Texas and 20,565 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Despite the surge in cases and deaths in November, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said Thursday he is ruling out another statewide lockdown. The state recorded more than 12,000 new cases Thursday — by far its most since the pandemic began.

Surges in large cities

El Paso is faring the worst among major cities in Texas, Harvard data show. The county is averaging 1,386 cases per day over the past seven days, with 165.1 new daily cases per 100,000 people, according to the data.

County officials have called for immediate hiring of workers to help move hundreds of bodies inside nine makeshift refrigerated morgues, the El Paso Times reported.

“We don’t have the personnel,” El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego told The Texas Tribune. “We’re at a point where we start thinking of rationing health care — who’s going to get what? We’re not there yet, but we’re pretty close to it.”

Harvard data show there are 460 daily new cases in Lubbock County, which has a population of about 278,000. Lubbock Mayor Dan Pope announced Wednesday all large city facilities and athletic facilities will be closed for the remainder of the year, according to EverythingLubbock.com.

“We’re in trouble,” said county health official Dr. Ron Cook, the Associated Press reported.

Tarrant County is also in the red with 41.8 daily new cases per day per 100,000 residents. Tarrant, which includes Fort Worth, reported 1,412 new cases Friday, the Star-Telegram reported.

Parker County to the immediate west of Tarrant County, as well as eastern neighbor Dallas County, are also in the “tipping point” category, Harvard data show. Johnson County, which borders Tarrant to the south, is in the red category along with one of the two northern borders, Wise County.

Thanksgiving Risk

The Georgia Institute of Technology released a map that helps assess the risk of at least one person at your Thanksgiving celebrations having COVID-19.

A gathering of 50 people in Tarrant County poses a 74% chance at least one person having COVID-19, the Georgia Tech data show. An event size of 10 people will pose a 24% chance.

In El Paso, Hale, Jones, Childress and Gray counties, there is more than a 99% chance someone in a gathering of 50 people has the virus, according to the university’s data.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Thursday that people should not travel for Thanksgiving but rather only celebrate with people in your own household.

There was a surge in coronavirus cases in Canada after its Thanksgiving on Oct. 12, McClatchy News reported.

This story was originally published November 20, 2020 at 9:27 AM.