Did Paxton’s win put down-ballot Republicans at risk? Texas Dems see opening
Texas is five months away from its November general election, and Republicans are fighting to keep control in Texas.
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn — on the campaign trail in the primary battle of his life — warned that down ballot GOP seats could be at risk if his Republican opponent Attorney General Ken Paxton were the nominee. Paxton won the May 26 primary runoff, and Republicans are now calling for unity as they try to keep Cornyn’s prediction from becoming a reality.
In an Election Day interview, SMU Political Science Professor Cal Jillson said the general assumption is that Cornyn as the nominee would win in November with a lead somewhere in the mid to upper single digits. Paxton’s margins are thought to be more of a “squeaker” — “2 or 3 points if he won at all.”
A possible trickle-down effect from the top of the ballot coupled with President Donald Trump’s dwindling popularity could bode well for Democrats in a midterm election year that they hope is promising for political pickups.
“Ken Paxton is clearly the weaker Republican candidate, and so I think this does create a significant opportunity for Democrats in a bunch of down ballot races,” said Luke Warford, the founder of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, which works to elect Democrats, and a former statewide candidate for Texas railroad commissioner.
To be clear: Flipping a red seat blue is no small task in Texas, especially in statewide offices, where Democrats haven’t won in more than three decades.
Republican political consultants are skeptical that Paxton’s place on the ballot sways the needle for Democrats.
“I think the GOP should be fine down ballot,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist who has worked on Cornyn’s election campaign in the past, said in a May 26 email. “National forces might make an impact on these races, but I don’t think Paxton will cause the GOP to lose any races.”
With all of that in mind, here are some of the North Texas and statewide races we’re monitoring in the months leading up to Nov. 3.
The U.S. Senate and other Texas congressional races
The U.S. Senate race between Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico, an Austin area Democrat who’s the party’s nominee, is the marquee race in Texas’ November general election.
It’s been about eight years since Democrat Beto O’Rourke gained national attention when he lost to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz by less than 3 percentage points. Since then, the Democratic Party has been trying to capture that momentum and then some in elections for the statewide office.
“I don’t think that the conditions could get any better for Democrats,” O’Rouke said in an interview that was featured in a fundraising email from his group Powered by People. “This is as good as I’ve seen it in my lifetime.”
Paxton’s campaign didn’t return requests for comment.
Recent polls have put Talarico ahead of Paxton in November. The Cook Political Report still has the statewide office in the red column, but shifted it from a “Likely Republican” seat to a “Lean Republican” seat after Paxton won the primary runoff.
“It’s a turbulent year,” said TCU political science professor emeritus James Riddlesperger in a May 26 text message. “That makes things more difficult to read. The baseline still favors Republicans both statewide and in Tarrant County. Best guess is that means the GOP will enjoy success, if by a smaller margin.”
He noted U.S. House seats that were redrawn mid-decade during a special state legislative session are something to tune in to.
“Might the Republicans have drawn their margins too thin?” he posed.
The Cook Political Report rates most congressional races in Texas as solidly red or blue and not easily flipped, but there are some exceptions.
Congressional District 9, held by Houston Democrat Al Green, and Congressional District 32, held by Farmers Branch Democrat Julie Johnson, in the solidly Republican column, per The Cook Political Report. Congressional District 35, held by Rep. Greg Casar, an Austin Democrat, is now a likely Republican seat, and Congressional District 34, held by McAllen Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, is a toss up, according to the organization. All were affected by the state’s latest round of redistricting.
Experts also mentioned races in Congressional Districts 15, 23 and 28 as to watch, especially with Paxton on the ballot.
A report circulated by a pro-Cornyn political committee ahead of the runoff that projected several seats could be vulnerable with Paxton as the nominee, including U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne’s Congressional District 24.
But Jillson, the SMU political science professor, is skeptical of the idea the Irving Republican’s seat is at risk.
“I think it would have to be a pretty dramatic Democrat year for Van Duyne’s seat to come into play,” he said.
Statewide races in Texas
Texas’ full slate of statewide elected offices is on the November ballot: governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, general land office commissioner, agriculture commissioner and railroad commissioner.
Several of those seats are without an incumbent, warranting a closer watch in the November general election.
- Attorney General: State Sen. Mayes Middleton, a Galveston Republican, faces his colleague state Sen. Nathan Johnson, a Dallas Democrat.
- Comptroller: Republican Don Huffines, who previously represented part of North Texas in the state Senate, is running against state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt, an Austin Democrat. Acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock lost March’s GOP primary. He is filling in for former Comptroller Glenn Hegar, who is now the chancellor for the Texas A&M University System.
- Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent Republican Sid Miller isn’t on the November ballot after losing a primary election to Nate Sheets, the founder of a honey company. Sheets faces Democrat Clayton Tucker, a rancher and secretary of the Texas Farmers Union.
- Railroad Commissioner: Former Tarrant County GOP chair Bo French defeated incumbent Republican Wayne Christian in a May 26 runoff. He’ll face state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, a Houston Democrat, in the fall.
The railroad commissioner race could be of particular interest to Tarrant County voters, given French’s roots in the area.
French is known for making inflammatory social media posts and has faced criticism from fellow Republicans in the past for it, including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Patrick was among GOP leaders who called for his resignation as Tarrant County GOP chair last year.
Since winning the GOP nomination for railroad commissioner, French has seen support from Gov. Greg Abbott and Christian, his primary opponent.
Even Patrick is coming around, according to French.
“Last night I had a very nice call with @DanPatrick and I am very happy to have his support,” French said in a June 2 post on X. “The takeaway is that Republicans are unified and working together to defeat the slate of radicals the Democrats have offered up.”
A spokesperson for Patrick didn’t immediately return a request for comment. French also didn’t return requests for comment.
Texas Legislative Districts
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which works to get Democrats elected to state legislatures across the country, is targeting 15 seats in Texas, 12 of which are held by Republicans.
There are 88 Republicans and 62 Democrats in the House. The Senate has 20 Republicans and 11 Democrats.
Six of the targeted seats are in North Texas:
- House District 61: Rep. Keresa Richardson, a McKinney Republican, is facing Democrat Brittany Black. The Collin County-based district includes Weston and parts of Anna, Celina, Frisco and McKinney.
- House District 67: Rep. Jeff Leach, a Plano Republican, is facing Democrat Jordan Wheatley. The Collin County-based district includes Blue Ridge, Farmersville, Melissa, New Hope and Westminster, as well as parts of Allen, Anna, Fairview, McKinney, Plano and Princeton.
- House District 70: Rep. Mihaela Plesa, a Dallas Democrat, is facing Republican George Flint. The Collin County based district includes parts of Allen, Dallas, Plano and Richardson.
- House District 94: Republican Cheryl Bean is facing Democrat Katie O’Brien Duzan for an open seat. Incumbent Tony Tinderholt, an Arlington Republican, isn’t seeking reelection and is instead running for Tarrant County Commissioners Court. The Tarrant County-based district includes Dalworthington Gardens and Pantego and parts of Arlington, Bedford, Euless, Fort Worth and Hurst.
- House District 108: Rep. Morgan Meyer, a University Park Republican, is facing Democrat Allison Mitchell. The Dallas County-based district includes Highland Park, University Park and part of the city of Dallas.
- House District 112: Rep. Angie Chen Button, a Garland Republican, is facing Democrat Zach Herbert. The Dallas County-based district includes Sunnyvale and parts of Dallas, Garland, Richardson, Rowlett, Sachse and Wylie.
Additional Tarrant County races mentioned by experts as warranting a closer watch include:
- House District 96: Republican Ellen Fleischmann is facing Democrat Ebony Turner. Rep. David Cook, the seat’s Republican incumbent, is running for the state Senate. The Tarrant County-based district includes Kennedale and Rendon, as well as parts of Arlington, Burleson, Crowley, Fort Worth and Mansfield.
- House District 97: Rep. John McQueeney, a Republican, is facing Democrat Beth Llewellyn McLaughlin. The Tarrant County-based district includes Benbrook, White Settlement and parts of Crowley and Fort Worth.
University of Houston Political Science Professor Mark Jones said Paxton may make some suburban Republicans vulnerable in the House, though in some of the less competitive races Trump would need to see continued unpopularity with Republicans as well.
He singled out the open Tinderholt and Cook seats as seats that typically wouldn’t be at risk, but could be this year.
“The Texas House races in Districts 94 and 96 would normally be contests where the Republican candidate would win without much difficulty, but the combination of an increasingly unpopular Donald Trump, and flawed Ken Paxton at the top of the ticket, Republican candidates who don’t benefit from any incumbency advantage, and a Republican controlled Tarrant County Commissioners Court that has alienated some moderate Republicans could potentially put those two seats into play,” Jones said in an email.
He added, “In fact, if Democrats are going to have even a remote chance of taking control of the Texas House, they will need to win in Texas House Districts like HD-94 and HD-96.”
Senate District 9 will likely get national attention when Democrat Taylor Rehmet and Republican Leigh Wambsganss are on the ballot together for a rematch. The general election face-off comes after Rehmet won a January special election runoff for the Tarrant County district that Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
Craig Murphy, a Republican political consultant, doesn’t think there are enough seats in play for Democrats to win a majority in the Texas House or Senate.
Democrats are past their best days when Republicans were fighting each other and gas prices were on the rise, he said in a text message.
“Things are already trending downhill for them,” Murphy said.
Sure, Democrats say this time is different, but they’ve been saying the same thing for years, he said.
Local Tarrant County elections
Tarrant County is often seen as a barometer for the rest of the state, which means the county’s top-of-ticket race is one worth tuning in to.
Tarrant County Judge Tim O’Hare, a Republican seeking his second term in office, is running against Democrat Alisa Simmons, a county commissioner, in the general election.
O’Hare won his 2022 race against Democrat Deborah Peoples with 53% of votes to People’s 47%.
“Democrats have not been able to capture the chief executive position there in a long time,” Warford said. “I think that would be incredibly significant if Alisa Simmons is able to beat Tim O’Hare there, and Paxton being the nominee will have a significant impact there.”
In addition to others higher up on the ballot, Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair Allison Campolo mentioned the race for Tarrant County Precinct 2 featuring Republican Tony Tinderholt and Democrat Jared Williams, as well as the contest for the 323rd District Court between Judge Alex Kim, a Republican, and Democrat Brian Willett, as ones to watch.
Tarrant County GOP Chair Tim Davis did not return requests for comment.
