Cruz-O’Rourke race for U.S. Senate now ‘too close to call’ in Texas | Fort Worth Star-Telegram

The fierce battle for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas may just be too close to call right now, more than half a year before Election Day.

A poll released Wednesday shows that the contest between Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke — which is expected to be a costly, premier race on the November ballot — is up in the air.

“Democrats have had a target on Sen. Ted Cruz’s back, and they may be hitting the mark,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. “Once expected to ‘cruise’ to re-election, the incumbent is in a tight race with Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke.”

Forty-seven percent of Texans polled say they support Cruz; 44 percent say O’Rourke is their candidate. That’s within the 3.6 percent margin of error of the poll, officials say.

Political observers caution Texans about putting too much stock in this new data.

It’s just one poll — and the election is a long time away, not until Nov. 6.

“We don’t have any systematic evidence yet that Democrats can be effective in a statewide election here,” said Jim Riddlesperger, a political science professor at TCU.

It appears younger voters, those younger than age of 35, support O’Rourke. Half of Texans polled, who were between 18 and 34, said their vote will go to the Democrat. Thirty-four percent of those in that age range support Cruz.

But older voters are supporting Cruz. Fifty-three percent of those between 50 and 64 said they support Cruz. Forty-one percent said they back O’Rourke.

Riddlesperger said this has clearly become the race to watch in Texas.

“For the first time in a long time, Democrats have a candidate who looks as though he can be competitive,” he said. “But you still have to think of O’Rourke as an underdog.”

Cruz, a past and probably future presidential candidate whose Tea Party strongholds include Dallas-Fort Worth, is in his first Senate re-election bid.

After besting the popular and well-financed then-Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in a 2012 primary runoff, by claiming 151,686 more votes, he went on to consistently make headlines while serving in the U.S. Senate.

O’Rourke, a former punk rocker who has been traveling around the state since last year working to meet voters, has raised millions to support his campaign and many believe he has a chance at beating Cruz in this reliably red state come November.

O’Rourke, who isn’t accepting any PAC money in this race, out-raised Cruz in donations given during the first three months of this year — an unexpected development.

Democrats were quick to weigh in on this latest poll.

“Every single Texas Republican ought to be shaking in their boots,” Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said. “Folks are hungry for change.

“We can’t afford to sit back and ride the blue wave,” he said. “As Beto O’Rourke and the rest of the Texas Democratic statewide slate continue to barnstorm across Texas, folks have made it clear that they are fed up with failed Republican policies, D.C. politics and fringe issues.”

Both candidates, who have more than $8 million in cash on hand for this election, have said Tarrant County is crucial in the November election, because the state will go the way the county goes.

This poll, which reached out to 1,029 Texas voters, was conducted April 12-17. Interviewers called both cellphones and land lines.