Another strong Pacific system is expected to roll across North Texas later this week, bringing soaking rains to the area.
Forecast models are predicting 2-4 inches will fall between Thursday and Saturday.
Forecasters are predicting the heaviest rain will stay just southeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The rain isn’t expected to start falling until Thursday with the heaviest rainfall holding off until Friday or Friday night.
With the storm system still several days away, rainfall totals — and where the heaviest amounts fall — could change. But National Weather Service meteorologist Ted Ryan said the forecast models have been consistently showing about 2 inches in the DFW Metroplex.
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“I think that’s probably in the ballpark,” Ryan said. “I think the rivers and creeks and streams will certainly respond. Typically when we get into the cool season we see little evaporation.”
Any flash flooding will likely occur where the heavier, 4-inch rainfall totals occur.
The rainy forecast comes on the heels of the wettest fall on record and long-range forecasts predicting a wetter winter than normal due to El Niño, which typically brings above normal rainfall to Texas.
One other concern is cold air causing wintry weather on the backside of the storm on Saturday.
For now, it appears any snow or ice will stay north of DFW and closer to the Red River.
“I think that’s something we’ll watch closely,” Ryan said. “I think there’s fairly high confidence about the 2 inches of rain in the DFW area and the winter precipitation staying north of the Metroplex.”