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Severe weather could return to D-FW on Thursday

FORT WORTH -- Forecasters are monitoring developing conditions that could spark a repeat of severe weather on Thursday.

There's a 50 percent chance of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday, but the stuff Thursday could resemble what we saw Monday, when fierce thunderstorms developed throughout the Metroplex and other portions of North Texas.

For example, there were two sightings of tornadoes in Johnson County near Godley on Monday.

A cold front on Tuesday rolled through the region in the wake of the weather system that brought the severe storms.

It's expected to start swinging back into North Texas Wednesday from South Texas, said Steve Fano, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.

This time, however, it's dragging moist air from the Gulf of Mexico with it, Fano said.

"By tomorrow, a portion of it will still be draped across North Texas," Fano said Wednesday. "Also, a dry line is approaching from the west, and those are good ingredients for severe thunderstorms."

The dry line is the boundary between dry desert air and the moist gulf air. As it pushes east, the dry air collides with the moist air, which creates lift and then triggers storms.

"Tomorrow, especially tomorrow afternoon, looks like the best chance for seeing some severe storms," Fano said.

But Friday, Saturday and Sunday are expected to be warm and sunny, Fano said.


The National Weather Service officials attaches a percentage to their rain predictions for precipitation, but the system they use involves a "12-hour probability of precipitation or POP12." This refers to the likelihood, expressed as a percent, of a measurable precipitation event (1/100th of an inch or more) during the 12-hour period in a particular area.

In our case that generally means Tarrant and Dallas Counties -- the Metroplex.

The POP, usually for rain or snow, can be illustrated by an example, so let's use Thursday, which calls for 50 percent probability of rain in the Metroplex. This means that there's a five-in-10 chance that any location in the Metroplex will receive at least 1/100th of an inch of rain.