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Posted on Fri, Apr. 18, 2008

Mavs could pull surprises in playoffs

By RANDY GALLOWAY

Star-Telegram Staff Writer

A chorus of coaching voices in the nuclear-armed Western Conference of the NBA has delivered the same playoff message for weeks:

"There will be no first-round upsets."

Basically, that's true, and history backs up the claim. The NBA has never seen such a well-balanced, competitive collection of clubs assembled under the same conference roof.

Outside of Denver-Lakers, there can be no first-round upset.

The Mavericks, as the No. 7 seed, can win their series against the No. 2-seeded Hornets, and it will not be considered an upset.

But what if the Mavericks don't win?

Speaking of upset, many locals will be. Not to mention, damn mad to boot. And who knows what happens to this franchise, its players, and its coach, if there's another first-round ouster.

But the beauty of the playoffs is how a team, coach and players can suddenly discover revival and reward, even when it's least expected. The New York football Giants serve as a recent example.

If, however, the Giants are the good news side of a postseason surprise, well...

It's the Mavericks, of course, on the other end.

I read in my own newspaper this week that the Jason Kidd trade "blew up a successful team."

First, trading away Devin Harris blew up nothing that should be considered "successful."

And how can a franchise that is now the national poster child for playoff disgrace and disappointment, a franchise involved in not one, but two, historical collapses in the last two postseasons, be even remotely connected to that word?

But on a positive note:

At least this Mavericks' new springtime adventure finds them in a locale where they can operate far removed from the playoff spotlight. Mavs-Hornets will be the lowest profile series of the West's first round.

Call it hide and survive and, in a difficult call, I think they will survive in six games, but I wouldn't bet it that way, or the other. With all my respect for the Hornets, and with Chris Paul as my league MVP choice, the Mavs do have extensive playoff minutes, good and bad, to lean on, while a young stud like Paul has exactly none.

Plus, the Mavericks are yesteryears' news in the NBA. Move along, there's nothing to see here. A year ago, they were "The Thing." The year before, they were "The Next Thing."

At the moment, of course, they figure in no "Thing" discussions.

Flying under the radar, with no national expectations for long-range postseason success, is an element that could benefit the Mavs, at least in the opening series.

Failure against the Hornets will bring many potential ramifications, starting with possibly a Mark Cuban-Avery Johnson showdown. But that showdown could happen even if the team surprises us and goes on an extended run into late May. Things aren't cozy between coach and owner, and even winning may not cure that.

The regular season was the strangest around here since Big Nellie brought the franchise roaring back to life to start the new century. Only the Antawn/Antoine experiment by Don Nelson in '03-04 can compare to this one. By the way, Antawn/Antoine ended in first-round failure out in Sacramento, in case you forgot.

The Kidd trade in February, of course, became the season's focal point. While not exactly a regular-season success, only the playoffs can confirm it a failure, and at least there were encouraging signs along the way.

For one, Dirk totally embraced Kidd, and his performance on the floor shows that.

And those close to this team say it's the tightest group of players in the locker room in recent memory. If true, give Kidd credit for immediately fitting in, and also winning over any teammate doubters.

But about his perimeter shooting...

If Kidd is lighting it up anything close to the playoff preview in the regular-season finale Wednesday night, then the Mavs indeed will be advancing to the second round.

But the most interesting aspect of that very intense game involved the mind-set of Hornets coach Byron Scott. With no seeding details on the line for his club, Scott played a meaningless game all-out against a team playing all-out to avoid a first-round pairing with the Lakers.

Can't blame the Mavs for not wanting to see Kobe, but here's a better question:

Did Scott, a respected coach, tell us he preferred to face Denver instead of the Mavericks?

Some might say that's logical, but I wouldn't. I'd call Denver more dangerous, particularly for Scott's young team.

In a season where the Mavs have seen their respect factor erode in the West, maybe Byron Scott showed plenty in Game No. 82.

OK, I'm grasping for anything here. But so are the Mavericks.

Let the playoffs begin, and try to think New York football Giants.

Randy Galloway can be heard weekdays on Galloway & Co. 3-6 p.m. on ESPN/103.3 FM.