Some horses may be shying away from Breeders’ Cup

Everyone agrees, all the coaches and all the fans, that the game played Jan. 8 in Miami will determine the national champion of college football. About the selection process leading up to the game and about the teams involved there may be, and probably will be, passionate disagreement.

But about the game itself and what it means nearly everyone agrees. And that agreement confers championship importance. In fact, championship status depends entirely on such agreement. Without it, there would be only championship confusion.

That’s precisely where horse racing finds itself, in a state of championship confusion. The sport’s championship event, the Breeders’ Cup, may not in fact determine many championships at all, simply because the races, or at least eight of them, will be run on a surface that precludes agreement about their significance.

The Breeders’ Cup, diluted to 14 races and two days, will take place Oct. 24-25 at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif. After a calamitous winter season that lost several days of racing to impossible conditions, Santa Anita has installed another synthetic surface, called Pro-Ride.

If nearly two years of racing on these faux tracks has taught us anything about them, it’s this: Some horses love them, some hate them, and you can’t tell the one group from the other until the latches of the starting gate spring open.

"My feeling is that most people will still want to participate in the Breeders’ Cup," trainer Todd Pletcher said, referring to the impact of the synthetic surface, "but their level of confidence will be much lower."

And because the surface will compromise, even eliminate, some horses, how can people agree on the races’ significance? They can’t, and because they can’t, the races won’t be what they’re supposed to be, championship events.

"I think it could create a real puzzle at the end of the year," said Pletcher, whose stable set a record with $28.11 million in earnings last year. The eight Breeders’ Cup races run on Santa Anita’s new synthetic surface (six will be run on turf) will have "less significance," Pletcher said, than such races of the past.

Last year, nine of the 10 champions participated in the Breeders’ Cup, and eight of them won. But the upcoming Breeders’ Cup won’t be so definitive.

Kiaran McLaughlin, who topped the trainers’ standings at the recent Saratoga meeting, said the situation is especially difficult for East Coast trainers who have little experience on synthetic surfaces and "don’t know how their horses will handle the Santa Anita track." He said he might send one of his top sprinters, Lucky Island or Abraaj, to Santa Anita for what would amount to a trial run in the Ancient Title Stakes on Sept. 27.

And McLaughlin said he hopes to be there at Santa Anita with one or two of his young horses. His stable is rich in talented 2-year-olds, most notably Charitable Man, Girolamo, Regal Ransom and Majestic Blue. They’ve never raced on a synthetic track, but they’ve trained on one, and that at least gives McLaughlin a soupcon of confidence.

Having seen many strange outcomes on synthetic surfaces, some trainers might put their faith in bizarre possibilities and run horses that wouldn’t otherwise even be considered for the Breeders’ Cup. But many trainers have expressed apprehension. Trainer Larry Jones already has indicated he won’t run the country’s top 3-year-old filly, Proud Spell, in the Breeders’ Cup. And, of course, Curlin’s connections have expressed considerable hesitation about going to the Classic.

Jess Jackson, the principal owner of Curlin, announced Thursday that the champ will make his next start Sept. 27 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. And if he wins there, Curlin could clinch Horse of the Year simply because the Classic has been shorn of its championship significance.

In a move that’s perverse even by horse racing standards, the Breeders’ Cup will again have its "Championships" at Santa Anita in 2009. But the Breeders’ Cup board meets today, and it’s expected to restore championship significance to the event by announcing it’ll be at Churchill Downs in 2010.