Gary West 
Big Brown is Derby favorite, but is he up for challenge?
Star-Telegram Staff Writer
Big Brown won't win the Kentucky Derby.
Having said that, I realize I could be sticking my mug out there in the path of an oncoming pie. I could be setting the table for a crow feast, for Big Brown, I concede, is enormously talented, unbeaten as he is in three races, with his superiority totaling 29 lengths.
But not since Arazi in 1992 has a Kentucky Derby favorite been so unready for the challenge he's about to confront. Big Brown is the 3-1 favorite in the morning line for Saturday's 134th roseate run at Churchill Downs.
As a 2-year-old, Arazi had a sensational campaign, stringing together seven victories, including the visually stunning Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he rallied from last. The next year, after knee surgery, he had a single outing, a one-mile turf race in France, to prepare for the Kentucky Derby.
At Churchill Downs, I remember, in the week leading up to the 118th Derby, Arazi's trainer, Francois Boutin, spoke about the advantage of having a fresh horse for the race. On the other hand, Lynn Whiting, who was going to send out Lil E. Tee, spoke about the necessity of having a seasoned horse, one steeled by tough competition.
Lil E. Tee won, of course, and Arazi finished eighth as the 4-5 favorite.
And now, with accolades strewn like rose petals in his path, Big Brown enters the Derby as the favorite. His jockey, Kent Desormeaux, who has won two Derbies, says Big Brown is the best horse he has ever ridden.
His effervescent trainer, Richard Dutrow, says he's confident that, quite simply, Big Brown is "going to win the race." The Derby, after all, isn't such a tough race, he says in The Daily Racing Form. In fact, it's a "mismatch" because Big Brown is that good.
He's so good that he only has to have clear running room, which is why Dutrow chose the extreme outside post position in the field of 20.
The sensitive might interpret Dutrow's comments as insulting, might even think the trainer's selection of post position No. 20 smacks of arrogance. But Dutrow often veers in the direction of thoughtless ebullience. At the very least, though, his comments seem naive.
Although a masterful horseman, Dutrow obviously doesn't understand the Kentucky Derby or what's necessary to win it. He doesn't know how demanding and difficult it is or how many great horses it has humbled. Like Boutin in 1992, Dutrow never before has saddled a horse in the Kentucky Derby.
Not since the great filly Regret in 1915 has a horse won the Derby after only three races. Not since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 has a horse won the Derby breaking from post position No. 20.
And then there's the pace situation. Big Brown never has been farther than a length off the early lead. Gayego, Bob Black Jack, Cool Coal Man and Recapturetheglory all have sufficient speed to ensure a lively pace in the Derby. Will Big Brown, who hasn't shown he can control his speed, be content to tuck in behind them? Or will he use his natural speed to clear them and avoid a wide trip around the first turn, and if he does that, will he have anything left to meet the inevitable challenges in the stretch?
It's a reasonable question since Big Brown, who has a sprinter's pedigree, ran the final three furlongs of the Florida Derby in 38.08 seconds, which hardly augurs success at 1 1/4 miles.
Big Brown could very well be the most talented horse in the Derby. But many supremely talented horses have lost in this first event of the famed Triple Crown, and in the losing their trainers have learned to respect the Kentucky Derby as the most difficult race in America to win.
ONLINE: www.churchilldowns.com
134th Kentucky Derby
Saturday, Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
10th race: Post time: 5:04 p.m.
| No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | Cool Coal Man | Leparoux | Zito | 20-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Ekati | Coa | Tagg | 15-1 |
| 3 | Anak Nakal | Bejarano | Zito | 30-1 |
| 4 | Court Vision | Gomez | Mott | 20-1 |
| 5 | Eight Belles | Saez | Jones | 20-1 |
| 6 | Z Fortune | Albarado | Asmussen | 15-1 |
| 7 | Big Truck | Castellano | Tagg | 50-1 |
| 8 | Visionaire | Lezcano | Matz | 20-1 |
| 9 | Pyro | Bridgmohan | Asmussen | 6-1 |
| 10 | Colonel John | Nakatani | Harty | 4-1 |
| 11 | Z Humor | Douglas | Mott | 30-1 |
| 12 | Smooth Air | Cruz | Stutts Jr. | 20-1 |
| 13 | Bob Black Jack | Migliore | Kasparoff | 20-1 |
| 14 | Monba | Dominguez | Pletcher | 15-1 |
| 15 | Adriano | Prado | Motion | 30-1 |
| 16 | Denis of Cork | Borel | Carroll | 20-1 |
| 17 | Cowboy Cal | Velazquez | Pletcher | 20-1 |
| 18 | Recapturetheglory | Baird | Roussel III | 20-1 |
| 19 | Gayego | Smith | Lobo | 15-1 |
| 20 | Big Brown | Desormeaux | Dutrow Jr | 3-1 |
Weights: 126 pounds. Distance: 1 1/4 miles. Purse: $2,211,800 if 20 start. First place: $1,451,800. Second place: $400,000. Third place: $200,000. Fourth place: $100,000. Fifth place: $60,000.
gwest@star-telegram.com
