Jack Z. Smith 
The answer on the wind? New transmission lines
Star-Telegram Staff Writer
Texas' population is expected to jump nearly 50 percent -- an addition of about 11 million people -- in the next 30 years. That increase roughly equals the current population of 16 Fort Worths, 30 Arlingtons or 172 North Richland Hillses.
It means that many more businesses, homes, schools and other institutions will be devouring the electricity that powers air conditioning systems, industrial equipment, office copiers, personal computers and big-screen TVs.
Even with stronger energy conservation efforts, state officials expect that Texas will need appreciably more electric generation capacity. We'll also need thousands of miles of additional transmission lines to get the juice to consumers, most of whom will be in huge, fast-growing metropolitan areas. Dallas-Fort Worth is the state's largest metro area and the nation's fourth-biggest.
Texas needs not only to expand its power generation but also to diversify it.
The state generates electricity primarily by burning natural gas and coal. Natural gas is pricey. Traditional coal-fired power plants pose significant air pollution problems and spew large volumes of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas linked to global warming.
The state can diversify its generating capacity by relying more on clean, renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and biomass; nuclear power, which is virtually emissions-free; and "clean coal" plants that would capture carbon dioxide and emit lower levels of air pollutants than older coal-fired generators.
Wind power
On May 12, the U.S. Department of Energy issued a detailed analysis stating that wind power could provide as much as 20 percent of the nation's electric power by 2030. Wind currently provides only about 1 percent, but it accounted for 35 percent of the new generating capacity added nationally last year, according to the American Wind Energy Association.
In West Texas, clean, renewable energy means wind farms with gigantic turbines that can be seen for miles against a big blue sky. Those who have witnessed the rapidly proliferating maze of turbines in the Abilene and Sweetwater areas 150-plus miles west of Fort Worth probably aren't surprised to learn that Texas leads the nation in wind generation capacity.
The wind farms are predominantly in lightly populated West Texas because strong winds blow there with considerable frequency.
Under a state law passed in 2005, the Texas Public Utility Commission is considering five scenarios under which transmission lines would be built in West Texas and the Panhandle and linked to heavily populated areas to the east.
The new lines would encourage a major expansion of wind farms and could carry electricity generated by other means, such as a new coal-fired plant that Tenaska Inc. is proposing to build near Sweetwater. Tenaska plans to use technology that would greatly reduce carbon dioxide emissions . (Some wind power advocates have concerns, however, that Tenaska's use of a proposed transmission line could make it more difficult for wind-generated power to access the line.)
The transmission scenarios are outlined in a report by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), operator of the power grid that serves about 75 percent of Texans. The PUC is scheduled to vote July 17 on which scenario to adopt. It might recommend modifications to whatever scenario it favors.
The PUC has established five Competitive Renewable Energy Zones, dubbed "CREZs," where development of wind power will be encouraged.
Companies proposing to build transmission lines within a CREZ could apply to the PUC, which would hold hearings. Some projects might be approved by the second half of 2009, PUC spokesman Terry Hadley said. Projects could take two to five years to complete.
The ERCOT grid has 73,469 megawatts of generating capacity, including 5,173 megawatts of wind power that account for 7 percent of the total capacity. But the wind often blows very little in West Texas during periods of peak power demand such as hot summer afternoons, when air conditioning use is heavy. Therefore, ERCOT calculates that the wind generation adds only about 450 megawatts of power for peak demand.
The least expensive of the five transmission scenarios could lead to 5,150 megawatts of additional wind power capacity; the most expensive scenario could provide 17,956 more megawatts and require more than 3,000 miles of new lines. The added wind generation capacity could be enough to power anywhere from 2.6 million to 9 million homes, depending on which transmission scenario is selected.
Building transmission lines would cost anywhere from $2.95 billion to $6.38 billion under the varying scenarios. Some large lines could cost $1 million or more per mile.
Critics' concerns
A group representing Texas industrial customers has complained that the new transmission lines would result in higher electric rates.
The lines would be paid for by higher charges on monthly bills. For residential customers, the extra cost probably would be at least several dollars a month and would be assessed for an undetermined number of years, until the lines were paid for.
Critics also cite the lack of electricity generated by wind during periods of peak power consumption. As a result, even if many more wind turbines were built, the state probably still would need a large reserve of expensive standby power capacity to meet peak demand, the critics note.
Full speed ahead
Despite these concerns, the state should proceed with plans for construction of new transmission lines in West Texas and the Panhandle to encourage expansion of wind farms and other sources of electric generation that could range from clean coal to solar energy.
If Congress passes a law to restrict carbon dioxide emissions, that is expected to raise the costs of traditional power generation via coal or natural gas, thus making wind power increasingly cost-competitive.
Wind-generation technology should continue to improve and become more cost-efficient. The cost of developing wind farms has dropped more than 80 percent in 20 years, according to the American Wind Energy Association. Wind farms have been aided by a substantial federal production tax credit of about 1.9 cents per kilowatt hour. The credit expires this year, but Congress is considering extending it.
There are some encouraging efforts to develop technologies that could use surplus, off-peak electricity generation from wind to enable the storage of compressed air that could be injected into natural gas-fired turbines to generate electricity and cut the gas consumption by perhaps 40 percent. Other research efforts also are being made to develop means of, in effect, "storing" electricity for use when it is most needed.
If such technology were perfected and made cost-effective, it could greatly enhance the attractiveness of West Texas and Panhandle wind power because more wind-generated electricity could be deployed during periods of peak power consumption.
Big wind projects
Energy Future Holdings, the former TXU Corp., has announced tentative plans for Luminant, its power generation unit, to pair with Shell WindEnergy to build a huge 3,000-megawatt wind farm in Briscoe County on the southeast edge of the Panhandle. The wind facility "could include the use of compressed air to generate electricity," according to a company announcement in July.
Dallas billionaire investor T. Boone Pickens is planning a gigantic 2,700-turbine wind farm in thinly populated Gray, Roberts, Hemphill, Wheeler and Carson counties in the Panhandle, as well as a power transmission line and underground water pipeline.
On Thursday , Pickens announced that his Mesa Power will buy 667 turbines from General Electric Co. for the first of four phases for the $12 billion project being billed as the world's largest wind farm. It would produce enough electricity to power 1.3 million homes.
The city-owned electric utility in Austin is considering establishing its own wind farm in Pecos County in West Texas.
Conclusion
In recent years, the wind industry has grown by leaps and bounds as oil and natural gas prices have skyrocketed and traditional coal plants have become environmentally questionable. As a clean and renewable energy source with shrinking technology costs, wind power should enjoy a steadily growing appeal in Texas in coming decades.
As a first step, however, the proposed transmission lines are critically needed to link the wind farms in West Texas and the Panhandle to mushrooming metro areas needing major infusions of additional kilowatts.
Blowin' in the Wind
To learn more about wind power in Texas, check out a PBS NewsHour report on wind-generation in the state: http://tinyurl.com/4x78l8
By the numbers
1 Texas' ranking in wind power generation capacity among the 50 states.
5,173 Megawatts of current wind power generation capacity in Texas, representing 7 percent of total state electric generation capacity of 73,469 megawatts.
17,956 Megawatts of added wind power capacity proposed under the most-aggressive build-out of electric transmission lines among five scenarios outlined by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.
$1 million approximate per-mile cost of building some large transmission lines.
Sources: Reliability Council of Texas, American Wind Energy Association.
Jack Z. Smith is a Star-Telegram editorial writer. 817-390-7724
