If you've been thinking it's been dry lately, you're right.
This is shaping up to be one of the driest Marches on record. If there is no rain in the next week, it will set a record.
As of Friday, Dallas/Fort Worth Airport had received 0.01 inch of rainfall this month. The record of 0.02 inch of precipitation was set in March 1926.
Now, there are several chances over the next week for rain, including a slight one before the paper is dropped on your lawn this morning. None of them look like a sure thing.
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"All week long it looked pretty good for this weekend and then the weekend gets here and -- bam -- nothing," said National Weather Service meteorologist Amber Elliott. "There's a chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday, but the models right now are not really making us confident we'll get rain."
The best rain chance appears to be Thursday or Friday of next week, but that's too far off to be a certainty.
La Niña effect
Thanks to La Niña, the period between October and February was the fifth-driest on record for that four-month period, state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said.
D/FW Airport was 6.29 inches below normal for the period.
La Niña, which typically leads to drier than normal weather in Texas, occurs when temperatures are colder than normal and has its biggest effect on winter weather.
Even as La Niña is supposed to be waning, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows North Texas on the boundary between a moderate and a severe drought.
A large portion of East Texas and portions of Southwest Texas are already in severe drought.
"From Bryan-College Station to the north and east, it's really been dry for the last year or so," Nielsen-Gammon said. "The same is true for the southern part of the Edwards Plateau."
There is some hope that normal spring rains could return over the next several months.
The Climate Prediction Center's one-month precipitation model for April predicts rainfall at near-normal levels.
David Marshall, engineering services coordinator for the Tarrant Regional Water District, remains optimistic even though water usage has come close to March records for the district, which serves 1.7 million people in North Central Texas, including Fort Worth, Arlington and Mansfield.
Marshall advises those trying to establish lawns and gardens to heed the 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. ban against outdoor watering and not to water on windy days. He also advises mulching to maintain soil moisture.
The water district should have enough water to make it through a dry summer without drought restrictions. Currently, the water district's lakes are about 90 percent full.
While one forecast model shows hopeful signs in the month ahead, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook is predicting that drought will persist or intensify across North Texas between April and June.
Currently, the storm track is staying well north of Texas, and it isn't clear when that will change.
Nielsen-Gammon said forecasters can essentially flip a coin over whether the spring rains will come, but predicting this summer's weather will be easy if there is no more rain.
"If it stays dry, we know it will be hot this summer," he said.