Posted on Tue, May. 06, 2008

Poll showing Cornyn in tight races faces skepticism

By JOHN MORITZ

Star-Telegram Staff Writer

Rick Noriega

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AUSTIN -- A national polling firm puts Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Rick Noriega within striking distance of incumbent Republican John Cornyn, which is giving renewed hope to the underfunded challenger while leaving some observers questioning whether the numbers should be trusted.

"If the numbers are accurate, why is Rick Noriega having so much trouble raising money?" asked Harvey Kronberg, who publishes the online Quorum Report for Austin insiders. "Maybe there's some anti-Republican incumbent sentiment it's picking up, but I don't think we can trust the numbers."

The numbers are from Rasmussen Reports, which contacted 500 likely voters in Texas selected at random Thursday using automated dialing. The results showed that Cornyn, seeking his second six-year term, was the choice of 47 percent of the respondents while Noriega, a 10-year state representative from Houston, was supported by 43 percent.

Rasmussen, which is polling all of this year's contested U.S. Senate races and publishing the results of its daily tracking polls in the presidential race online, said the margin of error in the Cornyn-Noriega matchup was plus or minus 4 percentage points. It also suggested cause for worry for Cornyn, who has been on the statewide ballot four times since 1990 and has served as the state's attorney general and on the Texas Supreme Court.

"Any incumbent who polls below 50 percent is considered potentially vulnerable," Rasmussen says on its Web site. "That is especially true when a little-known challenger is so competitive in an early general election matchup."

Noriega, in his first run for statewide office, won a crowded Democratic primary without a runoff in March. But he has not demonstrated the fundraising prowess needed to compete in Texas, which has nearly 20 media markets spread across two time zones.

Tough year for GOP?

Cornyn campaign spokesman Kevin McLaughlin, while acknowledging that 2008 could be a tough year for Republicans nationwide, said that Texas remains a GOP stronghold.

"I just don't think that robo-call is real accurate," McLaughlin said. "For one thing, it shows Noriega with 84 percent name ID, and he's never run statewide before.

"But having said that, we're approaching this campaign like we're in a real race. Sen. Cornyn is going to take his conservative record to the voters of Texas and ask that they send him back to the Senate to keep representing their interests."

Tony Gray, a spokesman for Noriega, said the poll is reflecting what the Democrat has found on the stump and in focus groups around the state: Texans are growing weary of the partisanship in Washington that's drowning out the voices of ordinary people.

Online: www.johncornyn.com, www.ricknoriega.com