If Zenyatta is the answer, then stand and applaud

By GARY WEST

gwest@star-telegram.com

No filly or mare has won it, no Travers winner has won it, and no dirt horse has made a winning transition to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface to win a Breeders’ Cup event.

And so in the history of America’s richest race, today’s Classic has become the most uncertain and mysterious. It’s a $5 million conundrum.

And if the answer to this Chinese puzzle is Zenyatta, then every fan of racing and sports, everybody who ever has admired accomplishment or applauded grand endeavors should stand to applaud to her.

The simple truth is practice usually doesn’t make anything perfect; perfection usually eludes even the most conscientious efforts.

But with a victory in the Classic, Zenyatta can erect a towering monument of perfection. The champion mare who’s unbeaten in 13 races will take on males for the first time today.

If she’s successful, even the punters who bet against her will probably stand and applaud and thank her, not just for the sheer joy of watching her race but also for making perfection seem possible.

Richard Migliore, who’ll ride Regal Ransom in the Classic, said that when he’s around Zenyatta he can sense her charisma as if she’s emanating some force. Only one other horse, he said, ever had that effect on him: Seattle Slew.

Jerry Moss, who owns Zenyatta in partnership with his wife, Ann, said he decided to run the Amazonian mare in the Classic not in an effort to make her Horse of the Year, but to let her prove just how great she can be. And that, of course, is the right reason.

Her trainer, John Shirreffs, said she’s doing "terrific" going into the Classic. And her jockey, Mike Smith, predicted fans will "see something amazing."

And they might. Still, no filly or mare has won this race. Triptych finished sixth in 1986, Jolypha third in 1992 and Azeri fifth in 2004 at Lone Star. No betting favorite won a Breeders’ Cup race Friday.

And so if Zenyatta, who’s the 5-2 favorite in the morning line, isn’t the answer, then who is?

Summer Bird, the Travers winner, is a logical candidate. But he never has raced over a synthetic surface. Nor have Quality Road or Girolamo. Mine That Bird, the Kentucky Derby winner, ran two of the worst races of his career at Santa Anita. Regal Ransom, the Super Derby winner, finished ahead of one horse last year when he tried Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface.

Colonel John is reliable and proven on the surface, having won three races at Santa Anita. His trainer, Eoin Harty, said he’s "very confident" The Colonel will run well today. But in recent races, Colonel John has shown a talent for finding trouble. And if that happens today — well, he’s not so good that he can overcome trouble and defeat this group.

Adding to the mystery is the presence of four turf horses — Gio Ponti, Twice Over, Einstein and Rip Van Winkle. Last year, two turf horses won Breeders’ Cup races over Pro-Ride, including Raven’s Pass, who took the Classic.

And so from here, Rip Van Winkle looks like the answer. He should handle the surface, and if his English races are indicative, he’s possibly just faster than the horses he’s facing today.

He finished a length behind the sensational Sea The Stars in the Eclipse Stakes at 1 1/4 miles, and, most recently, he won the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot, the same race that last year produced Raven’s Pass.

"There’s no doubt that this is a very special horse," said his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, "and we haven’t come here with a horse of this caliber before."

Yes, logic says Rip Van Winkle is the answer. But logic may not supply the key to a $5 million conundrum. And, frankly, I hope that at the end of the day I’m standing up to applaud the Amazonian.

Gary West, 817-390-7760

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