College basketball fans are one week away from Office Pool Monday, when filling out NCAA Tournament brackets will be the top priority of workers in businesses throughout the U.S.
In a season marked by stunning upsets and recurring turnover at the top of the polls, lots of seeding issues and at-large berths will not be settled until the conclusion of this week’s conference tournaments.But some things are becoming clear to ESPN college basketball analyst Fran Fraschilla, who offered a handful of insights for fans wanting to get an early handle on their brackets.Among them:• Lean heavily on senior-laden teams when identifying schools that will do well in the tournament. In a parity-filled season, Fraschilla said: “Veteran teams should be at a premium this year as you put together your bracket. ... There’s no team that is a juggernaut.” And in a balanced field, experienced teams typically make fewer mistakes that result in close losses.• Believe in No. 1 Gonzaga (30-2), which could earn its first top seed in the NCAA Tournament as the Zags pursue the school’s first Final Four appearance. Naysayers question the team’s strength-of-schedule because Gonzaga plays in the low-profile West Coast Conference. Not Fraschilla, who said the Bulldogs deserve a No. 1 seed, as well as significant respect. “They can’t help the league they’re in. And they haven’t ducked anybody in non-conference play,” Fraschilla said, noting the team’s 5-0 mark against Big 12 opponents, including a 68-52 rout of No. 9 Kansas State (25-6), a Big 12 co-champ.• Believe in No. 4 Kansas (26-5) despite Saturday’s 81-58 loss at Baylor and a head-scratching, 62-55 loss to TCU, the Big 12 cellar-dweller, on Feb. 6. Fraschilla said the TCU loss “will go down as one of the strangest blips of all time on the NCAA selection committee’s radar” but he expects the Jayhawks to emerge as a No. 1 seed. Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s bracketology expert, projected Kansas as the No. 1 seed in the South Region in his Sunday update. CBS’ Jerry Palm projected KU as the South’s No. 2 seed.• Tap the brakes on the significance of Baylor’s 81-58 rout of Kansas, in terms of securing an at-large NCAA bid for the Bears (18-13), unless Baylor follows with a couple of wins in this week’s Big 12 tournament in Kansas City, Mo. Fraschilla said he expects the Big 12 to receive five NCAA berths (i.e., no Baylor), but the Bears would be a lock with two wins in KC.• Believe in teams from the Mountain West, where No. 12 New Mexico (26-5) won the regular-season title in a league with five 20-win schools. Colorado State (24-7), UNLV (23-8), San Diego State (21-9) and Boise State (21-9) also have legitimate NCAA Tournament hopes, but the Lobos, who rank second in RPI, are the team to monitor. “The Mountain West has been terrific,” Fraschilla said. “New Mexico is a team you definitely don’t want to see in your bracket. I don’t know if they can get a No. 1 seed. But they can sneak up to the No. 2 line and be very formidable.”• Look for a tight battle for Big 12 player of the year, although Fraschilla’s nod goes to Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart. “He’s meant more to his program than anybody,” Fraschilla said.• Do not expect Texas (15-16) to secure its 15th consecutive postseason berth under coach Rick Barnes unless the Longhorns win more games than they lose in the Big 12 tournament. Asked about Texas winding up in the NIT or CBI, Fraschilla said: “If they get to .500, yes.”• Look for New Mexico and either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State to wind up in Austin for second-round games (March 22-24) because of the lack of a certifiable draw from within the Lone Star State. “They have to be creative down there [to sell tickets],” said Fraschilla, who will handle radio broadcasts from the South Regional games at Cowboys Stadium (March 29-31) with Brad Sham, the voice of the Cowboys. “You could see New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State.”Jimmy Burch, 817-390-7760 Twitter: @Jimmy_Burch
