Grading the Big 12 South's recruiting classes

By Jimmy Burch

jburch@star-telegram.com

Throughout the college football world, a series of premature celebrations will unfold Wednesday as fans revel in their school's latest recruiting haul on National Signing Day.

Given time and player development, some of the pie-in-the-sky projections about blue-chip prospects may prove justified. But many of Wednesday's most heralded signees never will be remembered as impact players when their college careers are over.

It's that way every year, and the latest example can be found in the recruiting classes of 2008, the latest to be put under the microscope by the Star-Telegram with its production points formula.

In examining the 2008 signees from former Big 12 South schools after the conclusion of those players' five-year eligibility windows, the following truths became evident:

Oklahoma's class, judged as the best of the Big 12 bunch five years ago, never produced the star power envisioned by analysts and finished next-to-last among the six classes in the survey.

Oklahoma State, deemed to have the fourth-best class among division members in 2008, actually signed the most productive group of the bunch, with key contributors forming the nucleus of the Cowboys' team that won the 2011 Big 12 championship.

Baylor's class, led by 2011 Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III, finished No. 2 in production points, rather than last among the six-team group, as predicted in 2008.

Texas Tech's signees from 2008 pitched a five-year shutout in terms of production points.

Texas' class, despite matching Oklahoma State for most individual point producers (five), underperformed for the third time in three years.

Texas A&M's 2008 class, the first recruited by former coach Mike Sherman, had a couple of NFL-bound gems but mostly continued a downward recruiting spiral -- subsequently stopped by Sherman and coach Kevin Sumlin -- that contributed to the firing of Dennis Franchione after the 2007 season.

More players with two-star pedigrees (three), as judged by Rivals, emerged as All-Big 12 performers than five-star talents (0).

Those conclusions are based on a Star-Telegram formula, first used with the 2006 signees, to grade recruiting classes in retrospect. Grades depend on signees' accomplishments, rather than their potential, using a system that assigns production points to milestones reached in their college careers.

Despite this season's shortfall for the 2008 class, the study underscores why Oklahoma -- with eight Big 12 titles in 14 seasons under coach Bob Stoops -- has been the most consistent program in the league. The Sooners, despite receiving only three production points from the 2008 class, still have the highest three-year total (62 points) of any former South Division school.

Oklahoma State, which received a league-high 25 production points from its 2008 signees, ranks second in the three-season total (50 points). Texas Tech is a distant third in the thee-year total with 21 production points.

The study also suggests that Texas, despite landing heralded classes every year from 2006-08, has struggled to develop those players.

The Longhorns, who scored seven points with their 2008 signees, have a three-year total of 19 production points. Only Baylor (17) and A&M (14) have fewer.

Texas' 2006 and 2007 classes were rated as the best among the six former South Division schools on signing day in those seasons, with the 2008 class deemed second best to Oklahoma. With players from those classes comprising its senior leaders, Texas has compiled a combined 22-16 record the past three seasons.

On a national scale, there is some correlation between recruiting rankings and on-field success. The top two recruiting classes from 2008, as judged by Rivals, were Alabama and Notre Dame.

Five years later, Alabama defeated Notre Dame 42-14 in this year's BCS National Championship Game.

Jimmy Burch, 817-390-7760

Twitter: @Jimmy_Burch

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