Tarrant County viewed as Texas' political bellwether

By Aman Batheja and Anna M. Tinsley

The Texas Tribune, atinsley@star-telegram.com

Tarrant County can expect to get a lot of attention over the next two years as Democrats continue their uphill climb to turn Texas -- one of the most Republican states in the nation -- from red to blue.

For the second presidential election in a row, Tarrant statistically was the state's bellwether county -- meaning that the results here mirrored statewide results more closely than did the other 253 counties in Texas. That makes Tarrant the clearest microcosm of the state.

While Democrats are gaining strength in the state's other urban areas, Tarrant has remained staunchly Republican. So the thinking of some political strategists is that if the Democrats are going to regain power in Texas, they have to turn Tarrant County.

"I think frankly it's why there's going to be so much attention focused on Tarrant County in the next two years, because if Tarrant County can turn Democratic, then the whole state can," Tarrant County Democratic Chairman Steve Maxwell said.

Republicans say they're confident that they'll continue their hold on Tarrant for the foreseeable future, and thus the state, where Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1990.

"I think it's still solidly Republican," Tarrant County Republican Chairwoman Jennifer Hall said. "That doesn't mean we don't have work to do, but I think it's still a solid Republican county."

Last month, the percentage of Tarrant voters who backed Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama (57.1 percent to 41.4 percent) mirrored the results statewide (57.2 percent to 41.4 percent).

Tarrant did the same trick in 2008, when it went 55.4 percent for John McCain to 43.7 percent for Obama. Overall in Texas, 55.5 percent voted for McCain and 43.7 percent for Obama.

The results add credence to the notion that Tarrant County is a political bellwether of the state, an assessment long made by many political analysts. And that will make the county a frequent destination for statewide candidates in upcoming elections.

"If you don't want to go there, you do so at great risk," said Bill Miller, an Austin-based political consultant who works with both Republicans and Democrats. "If you aren't there, you are losing ground.

"If you want to be successful, go to Tarrant County. Have a great candidate, great organization and a great message," he said. "Otherwise, don't show up."

Tarrant is especially important to both parties because votes from this community can often make the difference, said Craig Murphy, a partner in the Murphy Turner Associates consulting firm.

"Tarrant County all along has been ... providing a huge margin of Republican votes in the state," he said. "If you take that out, sometimes Tarrant County is the margin of victory ... and the victory could have gone the other way without it."

Growing importance

Despite Tarrant County's importance, political observers warn that residents should expect all candidates to campaign heavily locally, as Republican Ted Cruz did during this year's runoff for a U.S. Senate seat that he ultimately claimed.

But already, politicians are making more appearances in Tarrant County -- Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst spoke about education Thursday at Texas Christian University, and Gov. Rick Perry will be here later this month.

"In a statewide election, you go where it's most cost-effective. That may or may not be Tarrant County," Murphy said. "Republicans still dominate much of what's still happening here, and that is not going to change in any rapid way.

"But if there was erosion in Tarrant County, it would hurt Republicans statewide, and that might draw Democrats to pay more attention to the area. Democrats already are paying as much attention as they can here. They haven't written it off."

And recent Democratic victories -- particularly the hard-fought win by state Sen. Wendy Davis against state Rep. Mark Shelton -- give many increasing hope.

"Wendy showed that a centrist Democrat ... can win in a Republican-leaning area," said state Rep.-elect Chris Turner, D-Grand Prairie. "That's the model for a Democratic candidate.

"As Tarrant County becomes more competitive, that will certainly help statewide candidates."

Contrasting stance

Tarrant's election results are also notable for their apparent contrast with a political shift long under way in the state's other major urban centers.

Despite losing Texas, Obama won a majority of the votes in five of the six largest counties. Only in Tarrant, smaller than Harris and Dallas counties but larger than Bexar, Travis and El Paso counties, did Romney win out.

Geography has always played a role in distinguishing Tarrant County from the state's other large urban counties. Republicans have described Tarrant's fast-growing northeast region as a sort of firewall for Republicans as Democrats have recently won some high-profile races centered in the county's biggest cities -- Fort Worth and Arlington.

Whereas thousands of conservative voters in Dallas and Harris counties have moved from major cities to suburbs in neighboring counties, voters who have left Fort Worth or Arlington have often stayed within Tarrant and moved to suburbs in the northeast like Southlake, Colleyville and Grapevine.

Yet even Fort Worth bucked the national trend of large cities favoring Obama.

Romney won Fort Worth by a few thousand votes, according to a preliminary analysis by the Tarrant County Elections Department. Cowtown was one of only four "major cities" in the country to back Romney last month, along with Phoenix, Oklahoma City and Salt Lake City, according to The Atlantic.

"What has gone right in our county, it's not by accident," said state Rep.-elect Craig Goldman, R-Fort Worth, a former campaign strategist for Sen. John McCain and adviser to Sen. Phil Gramm. "It's by a lot of hard work by a lot of people for a long time."

But Maxwell said that Davis' win is more than just proof of a well-run campaign. Just like Tarrant County as a whole, Davis' diverse, politically divided Senate district is also a microcosm of the state, he said.

"It kind of shows you with the right candidate and the right election and being properly funded, a Democrat can win statewide in Texas," Maxwell said.

Anna M. Tinsley, 817-390-7610

Twitter: @annatinsley

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