Much of it was once considered too old, too remote and too dry to be a central player on the American stage, but now the 10-state Great Plains region is in the midst of a historic recovery, according to a report released today by Texas Tech University.
Fueled by a booming energy industry, heightened demand for farm commodities, a growing manufacturing sector and healthy in-migration, the region appears ready to "take its role at the center stage of American aspiration, innovation and progress," demographer Joel Kotkin wrote in "The Rise of the Great Plains: Regional Opportunity in the 21st Century.""It's an amazing transformation," Kotkin, a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., said of the region, which stretches across most of the western two-thirds of Texas into the Dakotas.Twenty-five years ago, the region was being written off as the great American desert and its young people were leaving in droves, Kotkin said.Indeed, in 1987, two New Jersey academics, Frank. J. Popper and Deborah Popper, proposed the depopulation of the Plains and turning it into a mega national park they called the "buffalo commons."The Poppers called the development of the Plains "the largest, longest-running agricultural and environmental miscalculation in American history."Instead, over the past decade the Plains have "surpassed the national norms in everything from population increase to income and job growth" the report said, noting that the new migration largely consists of younger families.But large swatches of the Plains have been left behind, particularly rural outposts far removed from metro centers, the report said.The region also faces other challenges including underground aquifer depletion, inadequate infrastructure, particularly air connections, as well as too little road, rail and port connections.The Great Plains is quickly urbanizing, said researcher Delore Zimmerman of Praxis Strategy Group in Grand Forks, N.D.The most striking aspect for Zimmerman is that the region is outperforming the rest of the nation in the key sectors of energy, manufacturing, information services and growth."The Plains now boasts some of the healthiest economies in terms of job growth and unemployment on the North American continent," the report said, adding that North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska are the only states with a jobless rate of around 4 percent and that Kansas, Montana, Oklahoma and Texas all have employment rates below the national average.Three factors will propel the region's future, Kotkin said.First is increased global demand for food, fiber and fuel. Second is the development of new technologies, particularly in oil and gas extraction.Third and most important, the report says, is the Plain's robust demographic changes.The bulk of its growth has come in the region's large cites -- Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, Kansas City, Omaha, Neb., and Oklahoma City. Of the 40 metropolitan areas, 32 show positive net domestic migration since 2008."Fort Worth with its growth and economy is a poster child for Great Plains cities," Kotkin said.Nearly 25 percent of the nation's food exports and 45 percent of its energy production comes from the Plains, the report said. Farms and ranches in the region account for 55 percent of U.S. farm land.In 2010, oil production in the region amounted to 41.6 percent of U.S. crude production with Texas leading the way with 21.4 percent.Taken together as a country, the Plains states would rank 14th in worldwide oil production.The energy boom is best reflected in natural gas production with nearly 67 percent of U.S. gas reserves located in the Great Plains. Texas alone produces 31.6 percent of the nation's natural gas.At the same time, the region's share of wind generation capacity has soared from 9 percent in 2000 to 44 percent in 2010.The Great Plains generated roughly 45 percent of the nation's new energy jobs from 2001 to 2011, with Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington adding 22,761 jobs, the report said."Once forlorn and seemingly soon-to-be abandoned, the Great Plains enters the 21st century with a prairie wind at its back," Kotkin concludes.Steve Campbell,817-390-7981Have more to add? News tip? Tell us
