By Jimmy Burch
jburch@star-telegram.com
For those wondering how the Bedlam Series game, rather than the Red River Rivalry, has become the defining game of the Big 12 football season the past two years, here's some insight:
Ignore the recruiting rankings and focus on production.
They will show you, given the clarity of hindsight, that the knee-jerk projections of analysts who declare "winners" on National Signing Day are not worth the paper they are printed on. The next batch will arrive Wednesday and, again, Texas will dominate the headlines in Big 12 circles because the Longhorns' class is filled with potential stars at the college level.
But that was the case in 2007 as well. And, five years after the fact, the Longhorns' class -- when graded based on a
Star-Telegram formula introduced last year -- failed to measure up to the classes signed in 2007 by Oklahoma or Oklahoma State.
That is based on a
Star-Telegram formula used to grade each of the six classes at former South Division schools after players finished their five-year eligibility window. This is the premise: The best way to judge a class, we are told by college football coaches, is to grade it in retrospect, five years after the initial signing day, once the NCAA eligibility window closes for that group of signees. So the
Star-Telegram formula assigns points to players based on their production each season.
And this is the bottom line for the class of 2007: Oklahoma (22 points) and Oklahoma State (12 points) outscored Texas (9 points) for a second consecutive year in our survey. Those schools finished ahead of A&M (7 points), Tech (4 points) and Baylor (3 points).
Over 2006 and '07, OU (59 points), OSU (25 points) and Texas Tech (21 points) outscored Texas (12 points), Texas A&M (9 points) and Baylor (3 points).
That goes a long way toward explaining why OU and OSU have played season-ending games that decided the 2011 league championship and the 2010 South Division title with teams featuring multiple upperclassmen players from the 2006 and 2007 classes. Yet Texas topped the recruiting charts, according to
Star-Telegram and
Rivals.com lists, on National Signing Day in both years.
What should this tell us about the accuracy of recruiting rankings? Plenty.
First and foremost, they are merely projections. And projections can be wrong. Also: Bottom-line success comes from developing players once they arrive on campus. Understand that it is not impossible for a 2-star signee to morph into an All-Big 12 player, regardless of what you'll hear Wednesday from analysts about the 2012 recruiting classes.
Jimmy Burch, 817-390-7760Twitter: @Jimmy_BurchGrading the class of 2007 | Then | Now | Productionpoints* |
| 1. Texas | Oklahoma | 22 |
| 2. Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | 12 |
| 3. Oklahoma State | Texas | 9 |
| 4. Texas A&M | Texas A&M | 7 |
| 5. Texas Tech | Texas Tech | 4 |
| 6. Baylor | Baylor | 3 |
Oklahoma | Top producers | Biggest accomplishment |
| WR Ryan Broyles | 2010-11 All-American, '09 first team All-Big 12 |
| LB Travis Lewis | 2008-11 All-Big 12 |
| DE Frank Alexander | 2011 Big 12 Defensive Player of Year |
| DB Jamell Fleming | 2011 first team All-Big 12, '10 second team All-Big 12 |
| OT Phil Loadholt | 2008 second team All-Big 12 |
2007 average Rivals star-ranking per signee: 3.38
Five-star signee: LB Mike Reed
Other notables in class: LB Austin Box, QB Keith Nichol, OL Donald Stephenson, K Jimmy Stevens
Oklahoma State | Top producers | Biggest accomplishment |
| WR Dez Bryant | 2008 All-American |
| RB Kendall Hunter | 2008, '10 first team All-Big 12 |
| DE Jamie Blatnick | 2011 first team All-Big 12 |
| OL Grant Garner | 2011 first team All-Big 12 |
2007 average Rivals star-ranking per signee: 3.04
Five-star signees: None
Other notables in class: WR Hubert Anyiam, DE Richetti Jones, WR Josh Cooper, DT Tonga Tea.
Texas | Top producers | Biggest accomplishment |
| DB Earl Thomas | 2009 All-American |
| LB Keenan Robinson | 2010, '11 second team All-Big 12 |
| DE Sam Acho | 2010 first team All-Big 12 |
| RB/KR Fozzy Whittaker | 2011 second team All-Big 12 |
2007 average Rivals star-ranking per signee: 3.79
Five-star signees: OL Tray Allen, DB Curtis Brown
Other notables in class: QB G.J. Kinne, DB Christian Scott, TE Blaine Irby, RB Cody Johnson
Texas A&M | Top producer | Biggest accomplishment |
| LB Von Miller | 2009 first team All-Big 12, '10 Butkus Award |
2007 average Rivals star-ranking per signee: 2.89
Five-star signees: None
Other notables in class: QB Ryan Tannehill, LB Garrick Williams, OG Evan Eike, DB Lionel Smith.
Texas Tech | Top producers | Biggest accomplishment |
| DE Brandon Sharpe | 2009 first team All-Big 12 |
| DT Colby Whitlock | 2010 first team All-Big 12 |
2007 average Rivals star-ranking per signee: 2.73
Five-star signees: None
Other notables in class: OL Mickey Okafor, WR Detron Lewis, LB Bront Bird, WR Jacoby Franks.
Baylor | Top producer | Biggest accomplishment |
| P Derek Epperson | 2009 first team All-Big 12, '10 second team All-Big 12 |
2007 average Rivals star-ranking per signee: 2.34
Five-star signees: None
Other notables in class: LB Elliot Coffey, LB Antonio Johnson, DT Zac Scotton, LB Earl Patin.
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