By Mitchell Schnurman
mschnurman@star-telegram.com
1. Will we fix healthcare or make it worse?
Every citizen has a stake in healthcare, but Texas has its own blend of contradictions. No state stands to benefit more from real reforms, yet leaders continue to oppose the federal law and key provisions.
If the Supreme Court upholds the Affordable Care Act next summer, Texas will play catch-up.
It's among six states that haven't made progress on health insurance exchanges, for example.
The exchanges are crucial to empowering consumers. With just 51 percent of Texas employers offering insurance to their workers, many residents must navigate that marketplace.
Thirteen states have established exchanges, five plan to do so and 23 are studying their options, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Of course, Texas is also among the 27 states that sued over the law. If the Supreme Court overturns it, Texas will still have to deal with almost 6.3 million uninsured residents, the highest share in the country.
Consumers already benefit from some provisions, including dependent coverage to age 26 and insurance protections when people get sick. It's hard to imagine giving up such advances.
Resolving the constitutional debate is only one step. Then the nation and state must decide whether to make healthcare access better or worse.
2. Can American Airlines keep its Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding on a fast track?Reorganizing the right way is obviously more important than doing it fast. But the pace of American Airlines' bankruptcy will be one indicator of its progress.
The more that creditors balk, the longer it will take -- and the more demoralizing it will become. If labor unions can't be persuaded to accept a contract, American will ask U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane to impose one and that's always heavily contested. If American tries to dump its pensions rather than freeze benefits and seek a longer payoff, there will be more arguments and delays.
Management wants to do this quickly, perhaps in a year or so. Rivals are already targeting some of American's most lucrative routes, including New York LaGuardia from both Dallas/Fort Worth Airport and Miami.
And in 2014, when the Wright Amendment restrictions end, Southwest Airlines is certain to add flights from Dallas Love Field aimed at American's high-paying business customers.
American always competes fiercely for market share. After bankruptcy, it expects to make money on that business.
And it needs some big wins in New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, cornerstone markets where it's trailing. The best defense may be a good offense, but that's a tough play in bankruptcy.
3. Will Texas remain a beacon for transplants?Last week, the Census Bureau reported that Texas led the nation in population growth. But the numbers weren't quite as strong as they seemed.
The government's count covered from April 2010 to July 2011, so the annualized increase came to 1.7 percent.
That's lower than the 2.1 percent growth rate that prevailed in the previous decade, said Steve Murdock, a Rice University professor and former census director.
"Even Texas can slow down," he said.
Population growth has been essential to Texas' vibrant economy. The state has a higher birth rate because the population is younger, and it's been a leader in attracting newcomers from other states and countries.
That happened a lot during the Great Recession as people fled California, the Northeast and upper Midwest looking for jobs in Texas. International immigration has slowed nationwide because high unemployment has discouraged movement. But 145,000 people still came here recently from other states, Murdock said.
Without a growing population, economies struggle. Europe is a prime example. And Michigan, still recovering from years of decline, lost population in the most recent count.
As Americans get older, population growth will fall naturally. Texas will still do well if it outperforms most other states and keeps luring their residents.
4. Will home building climb back or crawl back?Home starts in North Texas bottomed out two years ago, and the business has been choppy and uninspiring ever since.
"There's a consensus that the worst is behind us, but nobody expects a V-shaped recovery," said Ted Wilson of Residential Strategies, a Dallas research firm.
Home starts topped 50,000 in 2006, and Wilson says they're now running at an annual pace of about 14,000. He projects a 15 percent increase next year, which would be nice for most industries. But it's hard to get excited about that here because historical levels were so much higher.
In 1997, annual starts approached 24,000 at the start of a decade-long climb. Just a little more pop from home building would go a long way toward boosting the economy, especially jobs.
Many fundamentals are strong, including record-low interest rates and population growth. Even consumer confidence is improving, and that's been a major obstacle for big-dollar sales.
In Wilson's survey of builders, most predicted limited growth for the industry next year. That's understandable after five years of declines. But they also forecast double-digit growth for their own companies, reflecting what they see on the street.
That's an encouraging paradox: Maybe potential buyers are finally more positive than the builders.
5. When will government layoffs end?Texas has added 226,000 jobs in the past year, but the total obscures an important trend. Government has been shedding jobs for five straight months, cutting 65,000 workers in the past year alone.
Lawmakers slashed the state budget last summer, and there was no doubt about who will pay a price. Local school districts account for the bulk of these employees, so the pain ripples through communities.
Recently, sales tax revenue and other collections have come in stronger than projected, so future reductions may be less severe.
"Much of this will have run its course by the end of next year," said Terry Clower, an economist at the University of North Texas. "But don't expect any hiring binges in government, and that may still weigh down the economy."
The state comptroller says governments in Texas have more to trim -- 65,000 additional jobs over the next two fiscal years, including federal, state and local employers.
Fortunately, the private sector has picked up the slack. In the 12 months ended in November, Texas added almost 300,000 private workers, rivaling the peak performances of 2006 and '07. That's an impressive 3.4 percent gain.
Stabilize government, and the Texas job machine will be cranking again.
Mitchell Schnurman's column appears Sundays and Thursdays. 817-390-7821Twitter: @mitchschnurman
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