Rotating blackouts like the ones that occurred during February's cold snap are possible this winter if there is a "simultaneous occurrence of extreme weather and worst-case generation outages," the leader of the state's major power grid operator said Thursday.
The severe drought has resulted in "historically low levels" for reservoirs that provide cooling water for power plants that total more than 11,000 megawatts of generation capacity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said.That could result in "some portion of this generating capacity becoming unavailable during the winter," crippling the power supply, ERCOT said."Under extreme weather conditions, peak winter power demand could be approximately 60,000 megawatts," CEO Trip Doggett said. But "available resources, based on above-normal generation outage rates, could dip to approximately 57,000 megawatts."That could force ERCOT to ask electric utilities to implement controlled rotating blackouts as it did Feb. 2, after the rapid loss of 8,000 megawatts of generation due to exceptionally low temperatures and wind chill factors.The peak demand last winter was 57,315 megawatts Feb. 10, surpassing the peak of 56,334 megawatts Feb. 2.Doggett said ERCOT believes that the risk of such a combination of extreme cold and failures in generation units is "very low" but still exists.10-year outlookIn a separate, updated 10-year outlook for Texas power generation released Thursday, Doggett said ERCOT is "very concerned" about a decline in the state's reserve margin -- its surplus generation capacity available to avert controlled outages."If we stay in the current cycle of hot and dry summers, we will be very tight on capacity next summer and have a repeat of this year's emergency procedures and conservation appeals," Doggett said.Luke Metzger, director of Environment Texas, said ERCOT's report "should be a wake-up call to state and local officials that we need to save more energy.""By adopting tighter standards for energy efficiency in new buildings, expanding utility incentive programs and encouraging conservation, we can keep the lights on and save consumers money," Metzger said.ERCOT has a target reserve margin of 13.75 percent of power supply over anticipated demand but projects reserve margins to be only 12 percent at the summer peak in 2012 and 2013.ERCOT's analysis expects at least 2,600 fewer megawatts to be available next summer than it projected in June, with the reduction "primarily due to announcements to mothball some generation units and several delays in planned generation, as well as a higher load [electricity demand] forecast."ERCOT spokeswoman Dottie Roark said the reduced projection is based on "what the generation owners report to us regarding their plans." Dallas-based Luminant has said it could be forced to shut down two coal-fired plants in East Texas to comply with a new federal pollution rule.Texas' power demand is growing as the population does. During this summer's heat wave, ERCOT set a record for power demand, peaking at more than 68,000 megawatts Aug. 3.Jack Z. Smith, 817-390-7724Have more to add? News tip? Tell us
