Conservative GOP primary voters likely to like Perry's positions

By Dave Montgomery

dmontgomery@star-telegram.com

AUSTIN -- The just-concluded 82nd Legislature has armed Gov. Rick Perry with a host of red-meat issues to present to conservative Republican voters if he jumps into the wide-open presidential primary race.

But analysts say some of those issues could carry consequences down the road in reaching broader constituencies in a general election matchup against President Barack Obama.

Texas' longest-serving governor burnished his conservative profile with legislative victories that included a no-tax-increase budget with $15 billion in cuts, property rights protections, voter ID legislation and a bill requiring sonograms before abortions.

Two other Perry-backed issues -- an immigration measure to ban so-called sanctuary cities and legislation to prohibit intrusive airport pat-downs -- could also enhance the Texas governor's stature among conservative activists, though they ultimately died in the Legislature.

Even without declaring, Perry is becoming an early favorite among Tea Party activists for his adherence to limited government and his criticism of Washington. Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online analysis headed by much-quoted political observer Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, places Perry in the top tier of 11 Republicans with presidential aspirations. The Texas governor ranked No. 3, behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota.

But his embrace of the voter ID and sanctuary city bills has threatened a backlash among Hispanics, who accounted for 56 percent of the nation's population growth over the past decade. Perry's push for the sonogram bill has fortified his long-standing ties to family values and anti-abortion groups, but it has also made him a target from other circles.

"We would aggressively work to defeat him, of course," said Terry O'Neill, president of the National Organization for Women, which describes itself as nonpartisan but typically backs Democrats. "I think the sonogram legislation is yet another example of a politician interfering with women's healthcare."

Potential liabilities

Austin consultant Mark McKinnon, who served as a strategist for George W. Bush, another Texas governor who sought the presidency, said that the sonogram bill, voter ID and sanctuary cities legislation could be "problematic" with some groups in the general election.

"No question that some of Perry's Texas legislative accomplishments that will make him attractive to Republican primary voters will be a liability to general election voters," said McKinnon, who is vice chairman of Austin-based Public Strategies.

Dave Carney, Perry's chief political consultant, said Perry will make a decision "later this summer" but doesn't have a specific time frame. The governor's strategists have been collecting data and examining fundraising, Carney said, while Perry has made several high-profile speaking appearances that have fanned interest in his potential as a candidate. "The response has been great," Carney said, but "it's still too early to tell" whether Perry will become a candidate.

Austin lawyer Bill Crocker, a national Republican committeeman who has been encouraging Perry to enter the race, says he expects the governor to announce a decision before August. "I think he'll run," Crocker said. "I don't think he'll run because he wants to. I think he'll decide he needs to, because he's clearly the best candidate we've got."

Analysts say Perry's strengths include his stewardship of a large -- and decidedly red -- state, his much-touted record for job growth in Texas and his political skills in capitalizing on the emergence of the Tea Party movement.

Session strategy

Perry dominated the 140-day legislative session, and the subsequent special session, prevailing on most of his top priorities. Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, said the legislative successes will help Perry "in the short run" by strengthening his appeal to conservative Republicans in key primaries and caucuses but general election critics, he said, are likely to fault Perry for not having "a positive agenda" on issues such as education, healthcare and transportation.

Democrats are virtually certain to magnify talking points they used against Perry during the Legislature into fodder for a national campaign if he emerges as a nominee. While Perry and other Republicans hailed the $172.3 billion budget as a model of government restraint that avoided tax increases and a serious dip into the state's rainy-day fund, Democrats will counter that Perry oversaw $4 billion in education cuts and slashed needed social services.

Democratic consultant Dan McClung of Houston said Perry's approach differs from that of then-Gov. Bush as he prepared to make the move from Austin into the national arena in the late 1990s. Bush sought to present himself as "a compassionate conservative" in an attempt to muster broad appeal while Perry is reaching more toward the hard right and is "going to be much more limited in the path he's taking," McClung said.

Texas record

Yet other analysts say Perry is accurately gauging the prevailing national mood as he portrays Texas as a limited-government economic success story while much of the country is still suffering from a sluggish economy.

"I think the question is becoming why wouldn't he get in this race," said conservative strategist Keith Appell, senior vice president for CRC Public Relations of Alexandria, Va. "I think it's a center-right country to begin with, as demonstrated with the rise of the Tea Party. If the economy stays the same or gets worse by this time next year, Daffy Duck could beat Barack Obama."

Kyleen Wright of Arlington, president of the Texans for Life Coalition, she believes Perry's support of the sonogram bill "will help him" if he seeks the presidency. "The majority of Americans are much more pro-life than they have been in the past," she said.

Wright also said she believes that support for the sonogram requirement goes beyond traditional anti-abortion groups. "Even people who aren't as pro-life as some of the rest of us don't have a problem with women wanting more information and having to take a little time to review it and consider it before making a forever decision," she said.

Perry's push for voter ID legislation and the sanctuary cities bill, which would allow local police to inquire about immigration status, is expected to play well among conservative Republicans demanding tougher controls on illegal immigration.

In Iowa, a launching pad in the early presidential contests, "immigration issues are big and it's something Perry is going to be asked about" if he enters the race, said Craig Robinson, founder and editor-in-chief of The Iowa Republican, a conservative news site.

Conversely, there have already been signs that Perry's support of the legislation could hurt his efforts to reach out to Hispanics, who are expected to turn out in record numbers in 2012.

Perry received a cool reception at a recent appearance before the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials in San Antonio. Hispanic Democrats in the Legislature strongly opposed the sanctuary cities and voter ID bills, with many criticizing Perry for pushing them.

Democratic consultant James Aldrete of Austin said Hispanic anger over Perry's immigration stands could be "deadly" in swing states with growing Latino populations. But Juan Hernandez of Fort Worth, a co-founder of Hispanic Republicans of Texas, said Perry is a strong supporter of efforts to advance Hispanics in Texas and was the nation's first governor to sign legislation that allowed undocumented residents in Texas to get in-state tuition.

"He's been a friend of Hispanics for years and years and years," Hernandez said. "He has enough in his background to tell Hispanics, 'I will be on your side. I've proven it over and over.'"

Dave Montgomery is the Star-Telegram's Austin bureau chief. 512-476-4294

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