By Mitchell Schnurman
mschnurman@star-telegram.com
Has the balance of power in North Texas tilted toward Fort Worth?
Only in some boosters' dreams.
Census figures released last week showed that Fort Worth's population surged almost 39 percent in the past decade, while Dallas grew less than 1 percent.
A Page 1 headline in the
Star-Telegram heralded the coming age:
"Cowtown on track to surpass Big D."Mayor Mike Moncrief, who likes to talk about Fort Worth being the envy of other cities, took a dig, too. "All the trends are indicating the growth continues to be from the east to the west," he said.
Don't believe it.
It was a great decade for Fort Worth, no doubt. But it was also terrific for all of North Texas, and for Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The state's rising tide lifted all the urban ships.
And Moncrief was flat wrong to say that growth is moving from east to west. Rather, it's heading from central cities to outlying areas. In Dallas, which is so much larger and built out, the expansion headed into Collin, Denton, Ellis and Rockwall counties.
Fort Worth, because it wisely annexed land around Alliance years ago, was able to claim the suburban-style growth as its own. No shame in that, but the numbers don't represent a seismic shift in the market share of population or jobs.
For decades, the Dallas side of the Metroplex has accounted for about two-thirds of the area's residents, and that hasn't changed materially.
In 2000, the Dallas metropolitan statistical area (or MSA) had 66.9 percent of the area's population. In 2010, the Dallas MSA had 66.5 percent.When it comes to jobs, the concentration is even greater, with almost 71 percent of jobs located on the Dallas side. The Dallas MSA is much larger, with eight counties compared with four for Fort Worth. But a lot more cities feed into Dallas job centers.
Forty-four percent of Denton County workers commute to Dallas County, and almost half of Collin County workers make a similar trek. More evidence of where the growth is: Collin County added 106,000 jobs since 2001, more than three times as many as Tarrant.
It may be natural for politicians to take a bow when their communities make a big splash. The Census Bureau reported that Fort Worth had the biggest population gain and biggest percentage increase among the state's 20 largest cities.
"It's good to see that folks have good judgment and are coming to the west side of the Metroplex," said Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley.
That almost sounds smug. The Super Bowl, as disappointing as it was for North Texas, was a PR bonanza for Sundance Square and downtown Fort Worth. Between that global TV exposure and the population numbers, local leaders may be feeling pretty good about things right now.
I'd feel better if they were running scared, fearful of complacency. Dallas is making huge investments in its downtown, including a residential tower, a park built atop a highway and a science museum. It has the nation's largest light-rail network, and it's adding lines to the east and west.
By the middle of the decade, residents on that side of the Metroplex will be able to get to Dallas-Fort Worth Airport via light rail, and Love Field (already accessible that way) will be free of all Wright Amendment restrictions. Job centers in Las Colinas, Richardson, Carrollton and even Denton will be linked on the same system.
The Dallas Regional Chamber of Commerce has an economic development guide with more than 100 pages of details about D-FW. Several maps dispel any notion that power is shifting toward Fort Worth.
One has a dot for every corporate headquarters, including regional operations and U.S. and foreign subsidiaries. About three dozen locations are in Tarrant County. The Dallas side appears to have four to five times as many, with clusters downtown, in Las Colinas, and along the North Dallas Tollway and Interstate 75.
Another map shows the concentration of advanced services companies, which provide management and support functions. Downtown Fort Worth has a solid presence, along with a portion of Arlington and the Mid-Cities along Texas 183.
But the concentration on the Dallas side is at least four times greater, stretching north from downtown to Texas 121, covering a wide swath. Las Colinas alone appears to have more of these companies than central Fort Worth.
Another chart lists 23 North Texas firms that made
Inc. magazine's Top 500 list. Four are in Tarrant County, and the rest are east of Interstate 35E.
One other notable difference between east and west: In recruiting employers, Fort Worth doesn't have many rivals in Tarrant County. But Dallas has tough competitors in Irving, Plano, Frisco and more. Often when Dallas loses an economic development deal, that side of the Metroplex still wins.
Mitchell Schnurman's column appears Sundays and Wednesdays. 817-390-7821
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